2026 Sleepers, Values and Fades
Where our projections disagreed with the draft market, by position. Draft ADP is fixed at its last reading before kickoff: mock drafting stops once real games start, so the number cannot move for the rest of the season.
Draft-day values
Players who went at least 4 positional spots later than the model ranks them, inside the first eight or so rounds. If the model is right, these picks cost less than they return.
| Player | Team | Model rank | Drafted at | Draft ADP | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | TEN | WR24 | WR39 | 79.9 | +15 spots | 185.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | NWE | WR35 | WR46 | 96.8 | +11 spots | 167.9 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | WR27 | WR36 | 76.1 | +9 spots | 176.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | GNB | RB26 | RB34 | 93.9 | +8 spots | 150.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR33 | WR40 | 86.6 | +7 spots | 168.7 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR10 | WR16 | 29.1 | +6 spots | 234.9 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR8 | WR12 | 20.6 | +4 spots | 242.5 |
| Brian Thomas | JAX | WR31 | WR35 | 74.9 | +4 spots | 171.7 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR41 | WR45 | 96.5 | +4 spots | 152.8 |
Sleepers (ADP 100 and later)
The same signal in the double-digit rounds: late picks and waiver-priced players the model ranks well inside startable range at their position.
| Player | Team | Model rank | Drafted at | Draft ADP | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | NWE | WR56 | WR73 | 158.7 | +17 spots | 128.2 |
| Jordyn Tyson | NOR | WR48 | WR62 | 150.3 | +14 spots | 139.8 |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | WR44 | WR57 | 131.2 | +13 spots | 145.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | PHI | WR61 | WR71 | 157.7 | +10 spots | 113.3 |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | WR43 | WR52 | 118.5 | +9 spots | 148.0 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LVR | RB40 | RB49 | 151.4 | +9 spots | 85.4 |
| Chris Rodriguez | JAX | RB45 | RB54 | 156.3 | +9 spots | 74.4 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | WR64 | WR72 | 158.5 | +8 spots | 108.8 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB34 | RB41 | 122.4 | +7 spots | 113.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR46 | WR51 | 115.4 | +5 spots | 141.1 |
Fades: where the market is higher than the model
Not "bad players", just prices the model would not pay. The market drafted these players at least 4 positional spots ahead of where our projections rank them, so someone else can pay the sticker price.
| Player | Team | Model rank | Drafted at | Draft ADP | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | TAM | WR50 | WR38 | 77.4 | -12 spots | 137.7 |
| Jayden Reed | GNB | WR53 | WR41 | 88.4 | -12 spots | 133.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR36 | WR25 | 48.1 | -11 spots | 166.3 |
| Luther Burden | CHI | WR37 | WR26 | 50.6 | -11 spots | 163.4 |
| Mike Evans | SFO | WR40 | WR29 | 57.9 | -11 spots | 155.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | WR51 | WR42 | 90.2 | -9 spots | 136.8 |
| Rashee Rice | KAN | WR17 | WR9 | 17.2 | -8 spots | 206.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB13 | QB6 | 74.2 | -7 spots | 270.8 |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | RB11 | RB5 | 9.7 | -6 spots | 223.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR19 | WR14 | 26.8 | -5 spots | 197.0 |
How this list is built
Player projections come from position-specific models (ElasticNet and RidgeCV) trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data. We rank every player at his position by projected 2026 fantasy points, then line that order up against market ADP order at the same position. Disagreements of 4 or more spots land here.
One honest caveat: when the market is far ahead of the model on a player, the market sometimes knows something the stats do not yet show, like an injury timeline, a holdout, or a coaching promise. We show the gap and the numbers behind it, and you make the call.
Sleepers and values FAQ
What is a fantasy football sleeper?
A sleeper is a player being drafted much later than his likely production deserves, usually in the double-digit rounds. On this page a sleeper is any player with an ADP of 100 or later whose model rank at his position is at least 4 spots better than where drafters are taking him.
Who are the biggest 2026 fantasy football values right now?
The biggest gaps between our model and the draft market right now: Carnell Tate (model WR24, drafted WR39); Stefon Diggs (model WR35, drafted WR46); Michael Wilson (model WR27, drafted WR36). The full list on this page refreshes every morning.
How does DraftAI find sleepers and values?
We compare each player's rank in our machine learning projections against his market rank at the same position (ADP order among 2026 drafts). A gap of 4 or more positional spots in the model's favor makes him a value or, past ADP 100, a sleeper. A gap in the market's favor makes him a fade. Both lists recompute daily from fresh projections and ADP.