Derrick Henry vs Chase Brown
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chase Brown by 0.3 projected points (14.8 vs 14.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Chase Brown faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Derrick Henry faces ATL, the 20th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Derrick Henry ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Derrick Henry: a clear but modest edge of 10.3 points of value over replacement (113.4 vs 103.2).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Chase Brown first (ADP 13.1 vs 15.5). If the model is right, Derrick Henry is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Derrick HenryBAL | Chase BrownCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | ATL | MIA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.6 | 14.8 | Brown +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #20 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 250.0 | 239.7 | Henry +10.3 pts |
| Points per game | 14.7 | 14.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 113.4 | 103.2 | Henry +10.3 |
| Overall rank | #10 | #13 | Henry by 3 |
| Position rank | RB6 | RB8 | |
| Market ADP | 15.5 | 13.1 | Henry +2.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 6 |
Should I start Derrick Henry or Chase Brown in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Chase Brown by 0.3 projected points (14.8 vs 14.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Derrick Henry or Chase Brown in 2026 fantasy football?
Derrick Henry. He projects 250.0 fantasy points with 113.4 value over replacement, vs 239.7 points and 103.2 for Chase Brown (RB, PPR).