Christian McCaffrey vs Derrick Henry
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Christian McCaffrey this week, and it isn't close: 6.2 projected points separate them (20.6 vs 14.4).
Christian McCaffrey faces SEA, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Derrick Henry faces ATL, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Christian McCaffrey, and it isn't close: 68.4 points of value over replacement separate them (181.8 vs 113.4).
The draft market agrees: Christian McCaffrey goes first at ADP 5.4 vs 15.5 for Derrick Henry.
| Christian McCaffreySFO | Derrick HenryBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | SEA | ATL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 20.6 | 14.4 | McCaffrey +6.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #2 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 318.4 | 250.0 | McCaffrey +68.4 pts |
| Points per game | 18.7 | 14.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 181.8 | 113.4 | McCaffrey +68.4 |
| Overall rank | #3 | #10 | McCaffrey by 7 |
| Position rank | RB3 | RB6 | |
| Market ADP | 5.4 | 15.5 | Henry +10.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 13 |
Should I start Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry in Week 5?
Start Christian McCaffrey this week, and it isn't close: 6.2 projected points separate them (20.6 vs 14.4).
Should I draft Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry in 2026 fantasy football?
Christian McCaffrey. He projects 318.4 fantasy points with 181.8 value over replacement, vs 250.0 points and 113.4 for Derrick Henry (RB, PPR).