WR projections.

Machine learning wide receiver projections for 2026 fantasy football, built on ElasticNet models trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data with advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats and PFR.

#	Player	Tm	Age	Rec	Yds	TD	QB	Proj Pts
1	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	26	93	1164	7.2	Joe Burrow	309.0
2	Puka Nacua	LAR	25	98	1259	8.1	Matthew Stafford	302.3
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	24	95	1239	7.7	Sam Darnold	289.5
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	27	88	1100	7.1	Jared Goff	270.4
5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	27	69	920	5.7	Dak Prescott	243.6
6	Drake London	ATL	25	75	977	5.9	Michael Penix	238.5
7	George Pickens	DAL	25	76	1016	6.7	Dak Prescott	236.7
8	Justin Jefferson	MIN	27	67	830	4.5	J.J. McCarthy	231.9
9	Nico Collins	HOU	27	68	923	5.8	C.J. Stroud	229.1
10	Chris Olave	NOR	26	73	952	5.5	Tyler Shough	222.7
11	A.J. Brown	NWE	29	68	908	5.7	Drake Maye	221.1
12	Zay Flowers	BAL	26	76	991	6.2	Lamar Jackson	217.0
13	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	23	66	892	5.9	Bryce Young	213.3
14	Malik Nabers	NYG	23	60	844	5.1	Jaxson Dart	212.0
15	Tee Higgins	CIN	27	64	866	5.7	Joe Burrow	205.7
16	Rashee Rice	KAN	26	65	729	4.3	Patrick Mahomes	203.4
17	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	26	63	790	4.4	Justin Fields	202.6
18	DeVonta Smith	PHI	28	63	820	5.1	Jalen Hurts	202.0
19	Emeka Egbuka	TAM	24	61	827	5.4	Baker Mayfield	196.5
20	Ladd McConkey	LAC	25	61	779	5.0	Justin Herbert	193.6
21	Davante Adams	LAR	34	61	810	5.5	Matthew Stafford	192.3
22	Jameson Williams	DET	25	62	858	5.8	Jared Goff	192.0
23	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	28	58	783	4.8	Bo Nix	185.0
24	Rome Odunze	CHI	24	57	802	5.2	Caleb Williams	180.0
25	Alec Pierce	IND	26	52	822	5.4	Daniel Jones	173.5
26	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	24	54	758	4.6	Jacoby Brissett	170.2
27	D.K. Metcalf	PIT	29	58	749	4.4	Aaron Rodgers	169.4
28	Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	25	73	886	5.0	Cam Ward	168.9
29	D.J. Moore	BUF	29	53	676	4.0	Josh Allen	168.2
30	Brian Thomas	JAX	24	56	801	5.0	Trevor Lawrence	168.1
31	Michael Wilson	ARI	26	63	828	4.9	Jacoby Brissett	168.0
32	Courtland Sutton	DEN	31	59	790	4.9	Bo Nix	167.8
33	Christian Watson	GNB	27	48	743	5.2	Jordan Love	166.4
34	Terry McLaurin	WAS	31	46	637	3.6	Marcus Mariota	165.6
35	Luther Burden	CHI	23	48	564	3.7	Caleb Williams	165.5
36	Parker Washington	JAX	24	51	699	4.4	Trevor Lawrence	155.6
37	Carnell Tate	TEN	-	-	-	-	-	155.5
38	Quentin Johnston	LAC	25	58	776	5.1	Justin Herbert	153.5
39	Michael Pittman Jr.	PIT	29	59	697	4.3	Aaron Rodgers	153.3
40	Mike Evans	SFO	33	43	573	3.4	Brock Purdy	151.5
41	Jordan Addison	MIN	24	49	671	4.0	J.J. McCarthy	144.1
42	Josh Downs	IND	25	55	640	3.8	Daniel Jones	143.5
43	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	30	54	632	3.5	Trevor Lawrence	143.4
44	Romeo Doubs	NWE	26	54	733	4.8	Drake Maye	142.8
45	Khalil Shakir	BUF	26	63	690	4.2	Josh Allen	142.5
46	Xavier Worthy	KAN	23	53	692	3.9	Patrick Mahomes	140.6
47	Chris Godwin	TAM	30	45	484	2.8	Baker Mayfield	134.1
48	Jauan Jennings	MIN	29	58	747	4.8	J.J. McCarthy	133.7
49	Stefon Diggs	NWE	33	58	689	4.4	Drake Maye	131.2
50	Jayden Higgins	HOU	24	44	581	4.0	C.J. Stroud	125.5
51	Jayden Reed	GNB	26	39	450	2.9	Jordan Love	121.0
52	Travis Hunter	JAX	23	47	557	3.5	Trevor Lawrence	120.6
53	Matthew Golden	GNB	23	38	513	3.3	Jordan Love	117.3
54	Jalen Coker	CAR	25	43	530	3.5	Bryce Young	116.6
55	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	27	48	621	3.3	Shedeur Sanders	116.3
56	Jordyn Tyson	NOR	-	-	-	-	-	115.8
57	Makai Lemon	PHI	-	-	-	-	-	115.1
58	KC Concepcion	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	115.1
59	Omar Cooper Jr.	NYJ	-	-	-	-	-	112.3
60	Denzel Boston	CLE	-	-	-	-	-	110.2
61	Germie Bernard	PIT	-	-	-	-	-	110.2
62	Rashid Shaheed	SEA	28	42	534	3.0	Sam Darnold	108.6
63	De'Zhaun Stribling	SFO	-	-	-	-	-	108.0
64	DeMario Douglas	NWE	26	44	548	3.5	Drake Maye	100.1
65	Jalen McMillan	TAM	25	36	461	3.1	Baker Mayfield	99.1
66	Malik Washington	MIA	25	43	419	2.1	Tua Tagovailoa	97.2
67	Malachi Fields	NYG	-	-	-	-	-	97.0
68	Brandon Aiyuk	SFO	-	-	-	-	-	94.7
69	Josh Palmer	BUF	27	33	447	3.0	Josh Allen	94.2
70	Theo Wease	MIA	25	31	429	3.2	Tua Tagovailoa	93.2
71	Antonio Williams	WAS	-	-	-	-	-	90.3
72	Zachariah Branch	ATL	-	-	-	-	-	90.3
73	Ja'Kobi Lane	BAL	-	-	-	-	-	90.3
74	Kayshon Boutte	NWE	24	49	755	5.4	Drake Maye	89.0
75	Tre Tucker	LVR	25	56	704	3.9	Geno Smith	88.0
76	Tutu Atwell	MIA	27	27	416	2.8	Tua Tagovailoa	85.4
77	Caleb Douglas	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	85.1
78	Troy Franklin	DEN	23	52	689	4.3	Bo Nix	85.1
79	Calvin Austin III	NYG	27	37	480	2.8	Jaxson Dart	84.4
80	Kaden Wetjen	PIT	-	-	-	-	-	81.5
81	Brenen Thompson	LAC	-	-	-	-	-	81.1
82	Gabriel Davis	BUF	27	31	357	2.6	Josh Allen	81.0
83	Keon Coleman	BUF	23	47	630	4.4	Josh Allen	80.3
84	Jahdae Walker	CHI	24	19	276	2.5	Caleb Williams	78.5
85	Jordan Whittington	LAR	26	27	284	1.7	Matthew Stafford	77.6
86	Elic Ayomanor	TEN	23	45	613	3.6	Cam Ward	77.6
87	Keenan Allen	LAC	34	51	596	3.6	Justin Herbert	77.3
88	Elijah Sarratt	BAL	-	-	-	-	-	77.0
89	Skyler Bell	BUF	-	-	-	-	-	77.0
90	Chris Brazzell II	CAR	-	-	-	-	-	76.7
91	Ted Hurst	TAM	-	-	-	-	-	76.7
92	Tyreek Hill	MIA	32	47	616	3.6	Tua Tagovailoa	76.2
93	Zavion Thomas	CHI	-	-	-	-	-	75.9
94	Deebo Samuel	WAS	30	52	539	2.8	Marcus Mariota	74.8
95	Isaiah Bond	CLE	22	25	431	2.4	Shedeur Sanders	71.8
96	Sterling Shepard	TAM	33	32	327	1.7	Baker Mayfield	71.5
97	DeAndre Hopkins	BAL	34	26	352	2.2	Lamar Jackson	71.4
98	Konata Mumpfield	LAR	24	21	281	2.2	Matthew Stafford	69.9
99	Marquise Brown	PHI	29	42	534	3.5	Jalen Hurts	69.7
100	Reggie Virgil	ARI	-	-	-	-	-	69.6
101	Xavier Legette	CAR	25	42	525	3.3	Bryce Young	69.3
102	Barion Brown	NOR	-	-	-	-	-	69.2
103	Emmanuel Henderson Jr.	SEA	-	-	-	-	-	69.2
104	Josh Cameron	JAX	-	-	-	-	-	69.0
105	Dontayvion Wicks	PHI	25	40	526	3.4	Jalen Hurts	68.5
106	Kevin Coleman Jr.	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	68.3
107	Kalif Raymond	CHI	32	26	227	1.3	Caleb Williams	68.3
108	Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	29	33	344	2.0	Michael Penix	67.9
109	Xavier Smith	LAR	29	21	366	2.5	Matthew Stafford	66.9
110	Colbie Young	CIN	-	-	-	-	-	66.1
111	JuJu Smith-Schuster	KAN	30	28	250	1.3	Patrick Mahomes	65.4
112	Tyquan Thornton	KAN	26	24	578	4.3	Patrick Mahomes	64.9
113	Cyrus Allen	KAN	-	-	-	-	-	64.7
114	CJ Daniels	LAR	-	-	-	-	-	64.7
115	CJ Williams	JAX	-	-	-	-	-	64.7
116	Lewis Bond	HOU	-	-	-	-	-	64.7
117	Anthony Smith	DAL	-	-	-	-	-	64.7
118	Chimere Dike	TEN	25	42	461	2.4	Cam Ward	64.0
119	Ryan Flournoy	DAL	27	40	460	3.1	Dak Prescott	63.9
120	Deion Burks	IND	-	-	-	-	-	63.6
121	Dont'e Thornton	LVR	24	18	320	1.9	Geno Smith	63.5
122	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	DEN	28	20	220	1.2	Bo Nix	63.3
123	Darnell Mooney	NYG	29	35	497	2.7	Jaxson Dart	62.7
124	Bryce Lance	NOR	-	-	-	-	-	62.6
125	Malik Benson	LVR	-	-	-	-	-	62.6
126	Marvin Mims	DEN	24	40	455	2.5	Bo Nix	62.1
127	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	27	34	446	2.8	Joe Burrow	61.7
128	Tez Johnson	TAM	24	35	453	3.2	Baker Mayfield	61.6
129	Mack Hollins	NWE	33	36	478	3.1	Drake Maye	60.8
130	Darius Slayton	NYG	29	35	462	2.6	Jaxson Dart	60.7
131	Rashod Bateman	BAL	27	32	447	3.1	Lamar Jackson	60.4
132	Tory Horton	SEA	24	32	462	3.5	Sam Darnold	60.3
133	Cooper Kupp	SEA	33	41	429	2.4	Sam Darnold	60.3
134	Pat Bryant	DEN	24	35	417	2.7	Bo Nix	59.3
135	Hunter Renfrow	CAR	31	27	243	1.6	Bryce Young	59.1
136	Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	24	31	462	2.7	Joe Flacco	59.0
137	Isaac TeSlaa	DET	24	31	445	3.6	Jared Goff	58.8
138	Roman Wilson	PIT	25	24	316	2.1	Aaron Rodgers	58.1
139	Casey Washington	ATL	25	15	291	2.0	Michael Penix	56.2
140	Treylon Burks	WSH	26	22	294	1.8	Marcus Mariota	55.6
141	Tre Harris	LAC	24	34	381	2.4	Justin Herbert	55.5
142	Kendrick Bourne	ARI	31	30	393	2.5	Jacoby Brissett	55.3
143	Elijah Moore	PHI	26	30	348	2.2	Jalen Hurts	55.2
144	Jalen Tolbert	MIA	27	30	408	2.5	Tua Tagovailoa	54.5
145	Jaylin Noel	HOU	24	32	377	2.5	C.J. Stroud	54.3
146	Jalen Nailor	LVR	27	31	403	2.2	Geno Smith	54.2
147	Greg Dortch	DET	28	35	266	1.2	Jared Goff	53.4
148	Calvin Ridley	TEN	32	29	389	2.0	Cam Ward	53.4
149	Jahan Dotson	ATL	26	27	420	2.5	Michael Penix	53.1
150	Jaylin Lane	WAS	24	23	324	1.9	Marcus Mariota	52.4
151	Tim Patrick	NYJ	33	17	200	1.4	Justin Fields	52.3
152	Noah Brown	WAS	30	22	241	1.3	Marcus Mariota	52.2
153	Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	26	31	368	2.1	C.J. Stroud	51.8
154	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	DAL	32	16	181	0.9	Dak Prescott	51.1
155	Demarcus Robinson	SFO	32	24	352	2.3	Brock Purdy	51.1
156	Cedric Tillman	CLE	26	29	359	1.9	Shedeur Sanders	50.6
157	Mitchell Tinsley	CIN	27	15	264	2.0	Joe Burrow	50.6
158	KaVontae Turpin	DAL	30	29	333	1.9	Dak Prescott	50.5
159	Devaughn Vele	NOR	29	30	364	2.0	Tyler Shough	50.4
160	Luke McCaffrey	WAS	25	28	350	2.3	Marcus Mariota	48.7
161	John Metchie	2TM	26	28	247	1.4	Joe Flacco	48.6
162	Austin Trammell	JAX	28	11	160	1.4	Trevor Lawrence	48.6
163	Christian Kirk	SFO	30	30	312	1.9	Brock Purdy	48.1
164	Dyami Brown	WSH	27	23	330	2.2	Marcus Mariota	47.9
165	Josh Reynolds	NYJ	31	20	230	0.9	Justin Fields	47.4
166	Jack Bech	LVR	24	28	312	1.6	Geno Smith	47.1
167	Dylan Drummond	ATL	26	18	131	0.7	Michael Penix	46.6
168	Isaiah Williams	NYJ	25	30	233	1.0	Justin Fields	46.4
169	Zay Jones	ARI	31	18	232	1.3	Jacoby Brissett	45.8
170	Brandin Cooks	BUF	33	18	229	1.1	Joe Flacco	45.2
171	Van Jefferson	WSH	30	25	298	1.4	Marcus Mariota	45.0
172	Kevin Austin	NOR	26	22	232	1.6	Tyler Shough	44.6
173	Arian Smith	NYJ	25	15	208	0.9	Justin Fields	43.4
174	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	LAC	25	17	298	2.2	Justin Herbert	42.9
175	Gunner Olszewski	NYG	30	16	134	0.6	Jaxson Dart	42.5
176	Jimmy Horn	CAR	24	23	211	1.3	Bryce Young	42.4
177	Allen Lazard	NYJ	31	21	170	0.7	Justin Fields	42.3
178	Darius Cooper	PHI	25	22	245	1.7	Jalen Hurts	42.2
179	Tyler Lockett	LVR	34	20	179	0.7	Joe Flacco	41.7
180	Isaiah Hodgins	NYG	28	22	244	1.5	Jaxson Dart	41.6
181	Tyler Johnson	DAL	28	20	254	1.3	Dak Prescott	40.7
182	Jalin Hyatt	NYG	25	14	277	1.8	Jaxson Dart	39.3
183	Dante Pettis	NOR	31	20	184	0.6	Tyler Shough	39.3
184	Brycen Tremayne	CAR	27	21	218	1.3	Bryce Young	39.1
185	Xavier Weaver	ARI	26	16	230	1.3	Jacoby Brissett	38.7
186	Malachi Corley	CLE	24	24	77	0.0	Shedeur Sanders	38.4
187	Savion Williams	GNB	25	27	172	1.1	Jordan Love	37.6
188	David Sills V	ATL	30	16	190	1.1	Michael Penix	36.8
189	Ashton Dulin	IND	29	13	201	1.2	Daniel Jones	35.1
190	Ray-Ray McCloud	NYG	30	19	111	0.5	Joe Flacco	34.4
191	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	IND	29	17	153	1.1	Daniel Jones	34.3
192	Gage Larvadain	CLE	24	12	93	0.5	Shedeur Sanders	29.6
193	Chris Moore	WAS	33	8	134	0.8	Marcus Mariota	28.5
194	Tyrell Shavers	BUF	27	24	351	2.4	Josh Allen	27.4
195	Mason Tipton	NOR	26	22	231	0.9	Tyler Shough	27.4
196	Jamari Thrash	CLE	26	19	128	0.5	Shedeur Sanders	27.4
197	Scott Miller	CHI	29	16	84	0.2	Caleb Williams	25.7
198	Adam Thielen	PIT	36	13	103	0.2	Joe Flacco	24.5
199	Ricky Pearsall	SFO	26	47	666	4.2	Brock Purdy	23.7
200	Kyle Williams	NWE	24	24	452	3.6	Drake Maye	23.7
201	Chris Bell	MIA	-	-	-	-	-	23.7
202	James Proche	TEN	30	10	127	0.5	Cam Ward	22.8
203	KhaDarel Hodge	ATL	31	3	74	0.3	Michael Penix	13.3
204	Kendrick Law	DET	-	-	-	-	-	0.0

Proj Pts is our 2026 projection: the model blended daily with live market ADP, so the order reflects both. Rec, Yds, and TD are the model's projected 2026 components; QB is the passer context it weighed. Dashes mark rookies and returning players priced from market data alone.

How we project wide receiver performance

Our WR projection model uses ElasticNet regression with QB context features. Target share is the single strongest predictor of year-over-year wide receiver fantasy production, followed by age and QB quality metrics. The model incorporates the quarterback's passer rating and passing volume to capture the effect of offensive environment on receiver production.

Two-year target share trends and age curves help identify breakout candidates and players likely to decline. WRs in their age 24–27 window with rising target shares are the model's strongest positive signals.

Wide Receiver projection FAQ

Who are the top fantasy wide receivers for 2026?

According to our machine learning model trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data, the top 2026 fantasy wide receivers are: 1. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) with 309.0 projected fantasy points; 2. Puka Nacua (LAR) with 302.3 projected fantasy points; 3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) with 289.5 projected fantasy points; 4. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) with 270.4 projected fantasy points; 5. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) with 243.6 projected fantasy points.

When should I draft a wide receiver in 2026 fantasy football?

Target elite wide receivers in rounds 1–3 alongside RBs. In PPR formats, top WRs compete with RBs for overall VBD value. The position has excellent depth, but the elite tier (top 5–8 WRs) separates significantly from the rest. In 3-WR leagues, prioritize WRs even higher.