QB projections.
Machine learning quarterback projections for 2026 fantasy football.
| # | Player | Tm | Age | Cmp % | Att/G | Rush Yds/G | Rating | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 29 | 69.3 | 27.1 | 34.1 | 102.2 | 396.4 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 28 | 63.6 | 23.2 | 26.8 | 103.8 | 357.0 |
| 3 | Drake Maye | NWE | 23 | 72.0 | 28.9 | 26.5 | 113.5 | 329.6 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 29 | 66.8 | 32.4 | 5.1 | 100.7 | 327.1 |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 25 | 60.6 | 26.9 | 39.7 | 88.1 | 317.3 |
| 6 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 27 | 64.8 | 28.4 | 26.3 | 98.5 | 316.5 |
| 7 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 24 | 58.1 | 33.4 | 22.8 | 90.1 | 297.6 |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 32 | 67.3 | 35.3 | 10.4 | 99.5 | 291.1 |
| 9 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 27 | 66.4 | 32.0 | 31.1 | 94.1 | 285.0 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 26 | 60.9 | 32.9 | 21.1 | 91.0 | 279.0 |
| 11 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 30 | 62.7 | 35.9 | 30.1 | 89.6 | 276.4 |
| 12 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 22 | 63.7 | 24.2 | 34.8 | 91.7 | 271.4 |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 37 | 65.0 | 35.1 | 0.1 | 109.2 | 270.8 |
| 14 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 26 | 69.4 | 31.6 | 16.3 | 100.5 | 256.8 |
| 15 | Bo Nix | DEN | 25 | 63.4 | 36.0 | 20.9 | 87.8 | 253.8 |
| 16 | Jared Goff | DET | 31 | 68.0 | 34.0 | 2.6 | 105.5 | 242.6 |
| 17 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 28 | 68.3 | 32.2 | 34.6 | 88.6 | 215.7 |
| 18 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 30 | 63.2 | 31.9 | 22.5 | 90.6 | 211.6 |
| 19 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 26 | 67.6 | 29.7 | 16.9 | 91.3 | 208.5 |
| 20 | Jordan Love | GNB | 27 | 66.3 | 29.3 | 13.3 | 101.2 | 196.3 |
| 21 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 28 | 67.7 | 28.1 | 5.6 | 99.1 | 180.2 |
| 22 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 24 | 64.5 | 30.2 | 14.9 | 92.9 | 180.0 |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | IND | 28 | 68.0 | 29.5 | 12.6 | 100.2 | 169.3 |
| 24 | Malik Willis | MIA | - | - | - | - | - | 154.3 |
| 25 | Cam Ward | TEN | 23 | 59.8 | 31.8 | 9.4 | 80.2 | 143.8 |
| 26 | Bryce Young | CAR | 24 | 63.6 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 87.8 | 116.3 |
| 27 | Fernando Mendoza | LVR | - | - | - | - | - | 113.1 |
| 28 | Kirk Cousins | LVR | 37 | 61.7 | 26.9 | 0.7 | 84.8 | 93.5 |
| 29 | Justin Fields | KAN | 26 | 62.7 | 22.7 | 42.6 | 89.5 | 90.8 |
| 30 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 35 | 67.4 | 29.9 | 7.3 | 84.7 | 87.1 |
| 31 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 33 | 65.1 | 33.8 | 11.4 | 85.8 | 77.5 |
| 32 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 42 | 65.7 | 31.1 | 3.8 | 94.8 | 66.1 |
| 33 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 27 | 67.7 | 27.4 | 3.1 | 88.5 | 63.7 |
| 34 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 33 | 64.9 | 34.6 | 12.0 | 94.1 | 63.1 |
| 35 | Michael Penix | ATL | 25 | 60.1 | 30.7 | 7.8 | 88.5 | 63.0 |
| 36 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 22 | 57.6 | 24.3 | 18.1 | 72.6 | 60.0 |
| 37 | Mac Jones | SFO | 27 | 69.6 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 97.4 | 58.2 |
| 38 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 40 | 60.3 | 32.0 | 2.7 | 79.2 | 57.3 |
| 39 | Davis Mills | HOU | 27 | 57.2 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 81.6 | 56.1 |
| 40 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 32 | 61.2 | 20.6 | 27.0 | 86.1 | 55.1 |
| 41 | Spencer Rattler | NOR | 25 | 67.7 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 86.5 | 55.1 |
| 42 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 23 | 56.6 | 26.5 | 21.1 | 68.1 | 55.1 |
| 43 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 37 | 58.0 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 77.4 | 53.9 |
| 44 | Philip Rivers | IND | 44 | 63.0 | 30.7 | -0.3 | 80.2 | 51.0 |
| 45 | Tyrod Taylor | GNB | 36 | 59.7 | 22.3 | 23.8 | 72.9 | 50.9 |
| 46 | Jake Browning | TAM | 29 | 64.8 | 25.0 | 7.8 | 71.1 | 47.3 |
| 47 | Brady Cook | NYJ | 24 | 57.5 | 30.6 | 9.8 | 55.4 | 43.0 |
| 48 | Quinn Ewers | MIA | 22 | 66.3 | 20.8 | 4.8 | 85.5 | 41.9 |
| 49 | Ty Simpson | LAR | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 50 | Carson Beck | ARI | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 51 | Drew Allar | PIT | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 52 | Cade Klubnik | NYJ | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 53 | Cole Payton | PHI | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 54 | Taylen Green | CLE | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 55 | Athan Kaliakmanis | WAS | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 56 | Behren Morton | NWE | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 57 | Garrett Nussmeier | KAN | - | - | - | - | - | 37.2 |
| 58 | Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 25 | 59.5 | 18.5 | 8.6 | 80.8 | 37.2 |
Proj Pts is our 2026 projection: the model blended daily with live market ADP, so the order reflects both. Cmp %, Att/G, Rush Yds/G, and Rating are recent-season inputs the model weighs most. Dashes mark rookies and returning players priced from market data alone.
How we project quarterback performance
Our QB projection model uses RidgeCV regression trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of quarterback data. The model emphasizes volume metrics (pass attempts per game, rush attempts), efficiency stats (passer rating, completion percentage above expectation), and dual-threat ability (rushing yards and touchdowns per game). Advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats including time to throw and completion probability above expectation provide additional predictive power.
QBs with high passing volume and rushing upside consistently outperform their peers in fantasy. The model captures this through features like Rush_Yds/G and a Dual_Threat indicator for QBs averaging 20+ rushing yards per game.
Quarterback projection FAQ
Who are the top fantasy quarterbacks for 2026?
According to our machine learning model trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data, the top 2026 fantasy quarterbacks are: 1. Josh Allen (BUF) with 396.4 projected fantasy points; 2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) with 357.0 projected fantasy points; 3. Drake Maye (NWE) with 329.6 projected fantasy points; 4. Joe Burrow (CIN) with 327.1 projected fantasy points; 5. Jayden Daniels (WAS) with 317.3 projected fantasy points.
When should I draft a quarterback in 2026 fantasy football?
In 1-QB leagues, wait until round 7 or later to draft a quarterback. QB depth is strong in 2026, so the drop-off from QB1 to QB12 is smaller than other positions. Our VBD analysis shows elite QBs provide 30–40% less value over replacement than elite RBs. In superflex leagues, elite QBs are worth a first-round pick.