QB projections.
Machine learning quarterback projections for 2026 fantasy football, built on RidgeCV models trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data with advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats and PFR.
| # | Player | Tm | Age | Cmp % | Att/G | Rush Yds/G | Rating | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | BUF | 29 | 69.3 | 27.1 | 34.1 | 102.2 | 379.3 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 28 | 63.6 | 23.2 | 26.8 | 103.8 | 333.1 |
| 3 | Drake Maye | NWE | 23 | 72.0 | 28.9 | 26.5 | 113.5 | 328.3 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 29 | 66.8 | 32.4 | 5.1 | 100.7 | 294.3 |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 25 | 60.6 | 26.9 | 39.7 | 88.1 | 290.4 |
| 6 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 27 | 64.8 | 28.4 | 26.3 | 98.5 | 286.3 |
| 7 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 24 | 58.1 | 33.4 | 22.8 | 90.1 | 279.1 |
| 8 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 27 | 66.4 | 32.0 | 31.1 | 94.1 | 278.1 |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 32 | 67.3 | 35.3 | 10.4 | 99.5 | 274.8 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 26 | 60.9 | 32.9 | 21.1 | 91.0 | 268.1 |
| 11 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 22 | 63.7 | 24.2 | 34.8 | 91.7 | 267.1 |
| 12 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 30 | 62.7 | 35.9 | 30.1 | 89.6 | 263.2 |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 37 | 65.0 | 35.1 | 0.1 | 109.2 | 250.6 |
| 14 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 26 | 69.4 | 31.6 | 16.3 | 100.5 | 250.5 |
| 15 | Fernando Mendoza | LVR | - | - | - | - | - | 248.2 |
| 16 | Bo Nix | DEN | 25 | 63.4 | 36.0 | 20.9 | 87.8 | 240.8 |
| 17 | Jared Goff | DET | 31 | 68.0 | 34.0 | 2.6 | 105.5 | 235.7 |
| 18 | Jordan Love | GNB | 27 | 66.3 | 29.3 | 13.3 | 101.2 | 221.0 |
| 19 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 30 | 63.2 | 31.9 | 22.5 | 90.6 | 219.4 |
| 20 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 28 | 68.3 | 32.2 | 34.6 | 88.6 | 207.8 |
| 21 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 24 | 64.5 | 30.2 | 14.9 | 92.9 | 185.1 |
| 22 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 26 | 67.6 | 29.7 | 16.9 | 91.3 | 184.0 |
| 23 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 28 | 67.7 | 28.1 | 5.6 | 99.1 | 171.0 |
| 24 | Malik Willis | MIA | - | - | - | - | - | 165.8 |
| 25 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 42 | 65.7 | 31.1 | 3.8 | 94.8 | 159.9 |
| 26 | Cam Ward | TEN | 23 | 59.8 | 31.8 | 9.4 | 80.2 | 143.7 |
| 27 | Ty Simpson | LAR | - | - | - | - | - | 127.8 |
| 28 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 37 | 58.0 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 77.4 | 121.0 |
| 29 | Bryce Young | CAR | 24 | 63.6 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 87.8 | 115.8 |
| 30 | Daniel Jones | IND | 28 | 68.0 | 29.5 | 12.6 | 100.2 | 109.7 |
| 31 | Carson Beck | ARI | - | - | - | - | - | 107.7 |
| 32 | Philip Rivers | IND | 44 | 63.0 | 30.7 | -0.3 | 80.2 | 106.2 |
| 33 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 35 | 67.4 | 29.9 | 7.3 | 84.7 | 96.4 |
| 34 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 40 | 60.3 | 32.0 | 2.7 | 79.2 | 90.0 |
| 35 | Brady Cook | NYJ | 24 | 57.5 | 30.6 | 9.8 | 55.4 | 67.4 |
| 36 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 27 | 67.7 | 27.4 | 3.1 | 88.5 | 63.7 |
| 37 | Kirk Cousins | LVR | 37 | 61.7 | 26.9 | 0.7 | 84.8 | 63.4 |
| 38 | Michael Penix | ATL | 25 | 60.1 | 30.7 | 7.8 | 88.5 | 63.2 |
| 39 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 33 | 64.9 | 34.6 | 12.0 | 94.1 | 63.2 |
| 40 | Quinn Ewers | MIA | 22 | 66.3 | 20.8 | 4.8 | 85.5 | 62.7 |
| 41 | Justin Fields | KAN | 26 | 62.7 | 22.7 | 42.6 | 89.5 | 60.4 |
| 42 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 22 | 57.6 | 24.3 | 18.1 | 72.6 | 60.2 |
| 43 | Mac Jones | SFO | 27 | 69.6 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 97.4 | 58.3 |
| 44 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 33 | 65.1 | 33.8 | 11.4 | 85.8 | 56.7 |
| 45 | Davis Mills | HOU | 27 | 57.2 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 81.6 | 56.1 |
| 46 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 32 | 61.2 | 20.6 | 27.0 | 86.1 | 55.1 |
| 47 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 23 | 56.6 | 26.5 | 21.1 | 68.1 | 55.1 |
| 48 | Spencer Rattler | NOR | 25 | 67.7 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 86.5 | 55.0 |
| 49 | Tyrod Taylor | GNB | 36 | 59.7 | 22.3 | 23.8 | 72.9 | 50.9 |
| 50 | Drew Allar | PIT | - | - | - | - | - | 48.1 |
| 51 | Jake Browning | TAM | 29 | 64.8 | 25.0 | 7.8 | 71.1 | 47.5 |
| 52 | Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 25 | 59.5 | 18.5 | 8.6 | 80.8 | 45.9 |
| 53 | Taylen Green | CLE | - | - | - | - | - | 42.5 |
| 54 | Cade Klubnik | NYJ | - | - | - | - | - | 39.7 |
| 55 | Garrett Nussmeier | KAN | - | - | - | - | - | 30.6 |
| 56 | Cole Payton | PHI | - | - | - | - | - | 29.2 |
| 57 | Athan Kaliakmanis | WAS | - | - | - | - | - | 27.0 |
| 58 | Behren Morton | NWE | - | - | - | - | - | 23.2 |
Proj Pts is our 2026 projection: the model blended daily with live market ADP, so the order reflects both. Cmp %, Att/G, Rush Yds/G, and Rating are recent-season inputs the model weighs most. Dashes mark rookies and returning players priced from market data alone.
How we project quarterback performance
Our QB projection model uses RidgeCV regression trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of quarterback data. The model emphasizes volume metrics (pass attempts per game, rush attempts), efficiency stats (passer rating, completion percentage above expectation), and dual-threat ability (rushing yards and touchdowns per game). Advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats including time to throw and completion probability above expectation provide additional predictive power.
QBs with high passing volume and rushing upside consistently outperform their peers in fantasy. The model captures this through features like Rush_Yds/G and a Dual_Threat indicator for QBs averaging 20+ rushing yards per game.
Quarterback projection FAQ
Who are the top fantasy quarterbacks for 2026?
According to our machine learning model trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data, the top 2026 fantasy quarterbacks are: 1. Josh Allen (BUF) with 379.3 projected fantasy points; 2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) with 333.1 projected fantasy points; 3. Drake Maye (NWE) with 328.3 projected fantasy points; 4. Joe Burrow (CIN) with 294.3 projected fantasy points; 5. Jayden Daniels (WAS) with 290.4 projected fantasy points.
When should I draft a quarterback in 2026 fantasy football?
In 1-QB leagues, wait until round 7 or later to draft a quarterback. QB depth is strong in 2026, so the drop-off from QB1 to QB12 is smaller than other positions. Our VBD analysis shows elite QBs provide 30–40% less value over replacement than elite RBs. In superflex leagues, elite QBs are worth a first-round pick.