QB projections.
Machine learning quarterback projections for 2026 fantasy football.
| # | Player | Tm | Age | Cmp % | Att/G | Rush Yds/G | Rating | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 29 | 66.8 | 32.4 | 5.1 | 100.7 | 368.8 |
| 2 | Drake Maye | NWE | 23 | 72.0 | 28.9 | 26.5 | 113.5 | 338.9 |
| 3 | Jordan Love | GNB | 27 | 66.3 | 29.3 | 13.3 | 101.2 | 337.1 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | 29 | 69.3 | 27.1 | 34.1 | 102.2 | 332.6 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SFO | 26 | 69.4 | 31.6 | 16.3 | 100.5 | 318.4 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 32 | 67.3 | 35.3 | 10.4 | 99.5 | 317.2 |
| 7 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 37 | 61.7 | 26.9 | 0.7 | 84.8 | 315.0 |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 37 | 65.0 | 35.1 | 0.1 | 109.2 | 305.3 |
| 9 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 24 | 64.5 | 30.2 | 14.9 | 92.9 | 302.6 |
| 10 | Jared Goff | DET | 31 | 68.0 | 34.0 | 2.6 | 105.5 | 292.4 |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 26 | 60.9 | 32.9 | 21.1 | 91.0 | 291.7 |
| 12 | Bryce Young | CAR | 24 | 63.6 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 87.8 | 287.5 |
| 13 | Tyler Shough | NOR | 26 | 67.6 | 29.7 | 16.9 | 91.3 | 286.4 |
| 14 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 30 | 62.7 | 35.9 | 30.1 | 89.6 | 284.7 |
| 15 | Fernando Mendoza | LVR | - | - | - | - | - | 248.2 |
| 16 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 42 | 65.7 | 31.1 | 3.8 | 94.8 | 247.4 |
| 17 | Jacoby Brissett | BAL | 33 | 64.9 | 34.6 | 12.0 | 94.1 | 244.7 |
| 18 | Bo Nix | DEN | 25 | 63.4 | 36.0 | 20.9 | 87.8 | 244.2 |
| 19 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 35 | 67.4 | 29.9 | 7.3 | 84.7 | 243.5 |
| 20 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 24 | 58.1 | 33.4 | 22.8 | 90.1 | 241.7 |
| 21 | Michael Penix | ATL | 25 | 60.1 | 30.7 | 7.8 | 88.5 | 215.0 |
| 22 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 25 | 60.6 | 26.9 | 39.7 | 88.1 | 213.3 |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | IND | 28 | 68.0 | 29.5 | 12.6 | 100.2 | 204.3 |
| 24 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 27 | 66.4 | 32.0 | 31.1 | 94.1 | 203.9 |
| 25 | Cam Ward | TEN | 23 | 59.8 | 31.8 | 9.4 | 80.2 | 197.3 |
| 26 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 28 | 67.7 | 28.1 | 5.6 | 99.1 | 172.4 |
| 27 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 28 | 68.3 | 32.2 | 34.6 | 88.6 | 169.5 |
| 28 | Baker Mayfield | TAM | 30 | 63.2 | 31.9 | 22.5 | 90.6 | 145.4 |
| 29 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 33 | 65.1 | 33.8 | 11.4 | 85.8 | 131.8 |
| 30 | Ty Simpson | LAR | - | - | - | - | - | 127.8 |
| 31 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 32 | 61.2 | 20.6 | 27.0 | 86.1 | 117.9 |
| 32 | Carson Beck | ARI | - | - | - | - | - | 107.7 |
| 33 | J.J. McCarthy | NYG | 22 | 57.6 | 24.3 | 18.1 | 72.6 | 106.2 |
| 34 | Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 23 | 56.6 | 26.5 | 21.1 | 68.1 | 103.4 |
| 35 | Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 27 | 67.7 | 27.4 | 3.1 | 88.5 | 88.2 |
| 36 | Davis Mills | HOU | 27 | 57.2 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 81.6 | 82.4 |
| 37 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 40 | 60.3 | 32.0 | 2.7 | 79.2 | 78.1 |
| 38 | Mac Jones | SFO | 27 | 69.6 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 97.4 | 66.0 |
| 39 | Justin Fields | KAN | 26 | 62.7 | 22.7 | 42.6 | 89.5 | 60.1 |
| 40 | Tyrod Taylor | GNB | 36 | 59.7 | 22.3 | 23.8 | 72.9 | 59.1 |
| 41 | Spencer Rattler | NOR | 25 | 67.7 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 86.5 | 55.1 |
| 42 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 37 | 58.0 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 77.4 | 53.9 |
| 43 | Philip Rivers | IND | 44 | 63.0 | 30.7 | -0.3 | 80.2 | 51.0 |
| 44 | Drew Allar | PIT | - | - | - | - | - | 48.1 |
| 45 | Jake Browning | LAC | 29 | 64.8 | 25.0 | 7.8 | 71.1 | 47.3 |
| 46 | Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 25 | 59.5 | 18.5 | 8.6 | 80.8 | 46.3 |
| 47 | Brady Cook | MIA | 24 | 57.5 | 30.6 | 9.8 | 55.4 | 43.0 |
| 48 | Taylen Green | CLE | - | - | - | - | - | 42.5 |
| 49 | Quinn Ewers | JAX | 22 | 66.3 | 20.8 | 4.8 | 85.5 | 41.9 |
| 50 | Cade Klubnik | NYJ | - | - | - | - | - | 39.7 |
| 51 | Garrett Nussmeier | KAN | - | - | - | - | - | 30.6 |
| 52 | Cole Payton | PHI | - | - | - | - | - | 29.2 |
| 53 | Athan Kaliakmanis | WAS | - | - | - | - | - | 27.0 |
| 54 | Behren Morton | NWE | - | - | - | - | - | 23.2 |
| 55 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 27 | 64.8 | 28.4 | 26.3 | 98.5 | 0.0 |
| 56 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 28 | 63.6 | 23.2 | 26.8 | 103.8 | 0.0 |
| 57 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 22 | 63.7 | 24.2 | 34.8 | 91.7 | 0.0 |
Proj Pts is our 2026 projection: the model blended daily with live market ADP, so the order reflects both. Cmp %, Att/G, Rush Yds/G, and Rating are recent-season inputs the model weighs most. Dashes mark rookies and returning players priced from market data alone.
How we project quarterback performance
Our QB projection model uses RidgeCV regression trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of quarterback data. The model emphasizes volume metrics (pass attempts per game, rush attempts), efficiency stats (passer rating, completion percentage above expectation), and dual-threat ability (rushing yards and touchdowns per game). Advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats including time to throw and completion probability above expectation provide additional predictive power.
QBs with high passing volume and rushing upside consistently outperform their peers in fantasy. The model captures this through features like Rush_Yds/G and a Dual_Threat indicator for QBs averaging 20+ rushing yards per game.
Quarterback projection FAQ
Who are the top fantasy quarterbacks for 2026?
According to our machine learning model trained on 16 seasons (2010-2025) of NFL data, the top 2026 fantasy quarterbacks are: 1. Joe Burrow (CIN) with 368.8 projected fantasy points; 2. Drake Maye (NWE) with 338.9 projected fantasy points; 3. Jordan Love (GNB) with 337.1 projected fantasy points; 4. Josh Allen (BUF) with 332.6 projected fantasy points; 5. Brock Purdy (SFO) with 318.4 projected fantasy points.
When should I draft a quarterback in 2026 fantasy football?
In 1-QB leagues, wait until round 7 or later to draft a quarterback. QB depth is strong in 2026, so the drop-off from QB1 to QB12 is smaller than other positions. Our VBD analysis shows elite QBs provide 30–40% less value over replacement than elite RBs. In superflex leagues, elite QBs are worth a first-round pick.