Bijan Robinson vs Christian McCaffrey
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Christian McCaffrey by 0.6 projected points (20.6 vs 20.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Christian McCaffrey faces SEA, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Bijan Robinson faces BAL, the 10th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Bijan Robinson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bijan Robinson: a clear but modest edge of 9.9 points of value over replacement (191.7 vs 181.8).
The draft market agrees: Bijan Robinson goes first at ADP 2.3 vs 5.4 for Christian McCaffrey.
| Bijan RobinsonATL | Christian McCaffreySFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | BAL | SEA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 20.0 | 20.6 | McCaffrey +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #10 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 328.3 | 318.4 | Robinson +9.9 pts |
| Points per game | 19.3 | 18.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 191.7 | 181.8 | Robinson +9.9 |
| Overall rank | #2 | #3 | Robinson by 1 |
| Position rank | RB2 | RB3 | |
| Market ADP | 2.3 | 5.4 | McCaffrey +3.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 8 |
Should I start Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Christian McCaffrey by 0.6 projected points (20.6 vs 20.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey in 2026 fantasy football?
Bijan Robinson. He projects 328.3 fantasy points with 191.7 value over replacement, vs 318.4 points and 181.8 for Christian McCaffrey (RB, PPR).