Jonathan Taylor vs Derrick Henry
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jonathan Taylor by 0.4 projected points (16.5 vs 16.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jonathan Taylor faces WAS, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Derrick Henry faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jonathan Taylor, and it isn't close: 52.8 points of value over replacement separate them (154.7 vs 102.0).
The draft market agrees: Jonathan Taylor goes first at ADP 7.4 vs 15.5 for Derrick Henry.
| Jonathan TaylorIND | Derrick HenryBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | WAS | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 16.5 | 16.1 | Taylor +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 291.3 | 238.6 | Taylor +52.8 pts |
| Points per game | 17.1 | 14.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 154.7 | 102.0 | Taylor +52.8 |
| Overall rank | #4 | #11 | Taylor by 7 |
| Position rank | RB4 | RB7 | |
| Market ADP | 7.4 | 15.5 | Henry +8.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 13 |
Should I start Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jonathan Taylor by 0.4 projected points (16.5 vs 16.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry in 2026 fantasy football?
Jonathan Taylor. He projects 291.3 fantasy points with 154.7 value over replacement, vs 238.6 points and 102.0 for Derrick Henry (RB, PPR).