Derrick Henry vs Saquon Barkley
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Derrick Henry by 0.6 projected points (14.6 vs 13.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Derrick Henry faces ATL, the 20th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Saquon Barkley faces JAX, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Derrick Henry: a clear but modest edge of 9.9 points of value over replacement (113.4 vs 103.5).
The draft market agrees: Derrick Henry goes first at ADP 15.5 vs 18.3 for Saquon Barkley.
Health note: Saquon Barkley carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Derrick HenryBAL | Saquon BarkleyPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | ATL | JAX | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.6 | 13.9 | Henry +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #20 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 250.0 | 240.1 | Henry +9.9 pts |
| Points per game | 14.7 | 14.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 113.4 | 103.5 | Henry +9.9 |
| Overall rank | #10 | #12 | Henry by 2 |
| Position rank | RB6 | RB7 | |
| Market ADP | 15.5 | 18.3 | Barkley +2.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Derrick Henry by 0.6 projected points (14.6 vs 13.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley in 2026 fantasy football?
Derrick Henry. He projects 250.0 fantasy points with 113.4 value over replacement, vs 240.1 points and 103.5 for Saquon Barkley (RB, PPR).