Brock Purdy vs Jared Goff
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brock Purdy by 0.2 projected points (15.9 vs 15.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brock Purdy faces ARI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jared Goff faces NYJ, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Brock Purdy: a clear but modest edge of 14.3 points of value over replacement (-14.6 vs -28.8).
The draft market agrees: Brock Purdy goes first at ADP 84.0 vs 101.8 for Jared Goff.
| Brock PurdySFO | Jared GoffDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | ARI | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 15.9 | 15.7 | Purdy +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 256.8 | 242.6 | Purdy +14.3 pts |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 14.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -14.6 | -28.8 | Purdy +14.3 |
| Overall rank | #90 | #103 | Purdy by 13 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 84.0 | 101.8 | Goff +17.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 6 |
Should I start Brock Purdy or Jared Goff in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brock Purdy by 0.2 projected points (15.9 vs 15.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brock Purdy or Jared Goff in 2026 fantasy football?
Brock Purdy. He projects 256.8 fantasy points with -14.6 value over replacement, vs 242.6 points and -28.8 for Jared Goff (QB, PPR).