Matthew Stafford vs Jared Goff
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 0.0 projected points (15.7 vs 15.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jared Goff faces NYJ, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Matthew Stafford faces DEN, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Matthew Stafford ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Matthew Stafford, and it isn't close: 28.3 points of value over replacement separate them (-0.6 vs -28.8).
The draft market agrees: Matthew Stafford goes first at ADP 74.2 vs 101.8 for Jared Goff.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Jared GoffDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | DEN | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 15.7 | 15.7 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 270.8 | 242.6 | Stafford +28.3 pts |
| Points per game | 15.9 | 14.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -0.6 | -28.8 | Stafford +28.3 |
| Overall rank | #73 | #103 | Stafford by 30 |
| Position rank | QB13 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 74.2 | 101.8 | Goff +27.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 0.0 projected points (15.7 vs 15.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 270.8 fantasy points with -0.6 value over replacement, vs 242.6 points and -28.8 for Jared Goff (QB, PPR).