Head to head · QB · 2026
Trevor Lawrence vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Trevor Lawrence
The model takes Trevor Lawrence, and it isn't close — 17.4 points of value over replacement separate them (4.9 vs -12.6).
The draft market agrees: Trevor Lawrence goes first at ADP 81.9 vs 101.8 for Matthew Stafford.
| Trevor Lawrence | Matthew Stafford | |
|---|---|---|
| Team | JAX | LAR |
| Overall rank | #68 | #91 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB13 |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 268.1 | 250.6 |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 4.9 | -12.6 |
| Market ADP | 81.9 | 101.8 |
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 268.1 fantasy points with 4.9 value over replacement, vs 250.6 points and -12.6 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR).