Trevor Lawrence vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 0.6 projected points (16.9 vs 16.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Trevor Lawrence faces PHI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Matthew Stafford faces BUF, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 4.4 points of value over replacement (2.2 vs -2.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 74.2 vs 91.1). If the model is right, Trevor Lawrence is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | BUF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.9 | 16.4 | Lawrence +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #10 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 275.2 | 270.8 | Lawrence +4.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.2 | 15.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 2.2 | -2.2 | Lawrence +4.4 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #76 | Lawrence by 8 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 91.1 | 74.2 | Lawrence +16.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 |
Should I start Trevor Lawrence or Matthew Stafford in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 0.6 projected points (16.9 vs 16.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 275.2 fantasy points with 2.2 value over replacement, vs 270.8 points and -2.2 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.