Trevor Lawrence vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB10
Trevor Lawrence
268.1
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB13
Matthew Stafford
250.6
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Trevor Lawrence, and it isn't close: 17.4 points of value over replacement separate them (4.9 vs -12.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 76.9 vs 91.2). If the model is right, Trevor Lawrence is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 268.1 | 250.6 | Lawrence +17.4 pts |
| Points per game | 15.8 | 14.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 4.9 | -12.6 | Lawrence +17.4 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #92 | Lawrence by 24 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 91.2 | 76.9 | Lawrence +14.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 |
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 268.1 fantasy points with 4.9 value over replacement, vs 250.6 points and -12.6 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR).