Matthew Stafford vs Justin Herbert
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB8
Matthew Stafford
282.1
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB10
Justin Herbert
271.7
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Matthew Stafford: a clear but modest edge of 10.4 points of value over replacement (30.3 vs 19.9).
The draft market agrees: Matthew Stafford goes first at ADP 77.1 vs 105.2 for Justin Herbert.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Justin HerbertLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 282.1 | 271.7 | Stafford +10.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.6 | 16.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 30.3 | 19.9 | Stafford +10.4 |
| Overall rank | #46 | #54 | Stafford by 8 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 77.1 | 105.2 | Herbert +28.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 282.1 fantasy points with 30.3 value over replacement, vs 271.7 points and 19.9 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR).