Justin Herbert vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Matthew Stafford this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (16.4 vs 15.0).
Matthew Stafford faces BUF, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces DEN, the 29th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 4.9 points of value over replacement (2.7 vs -2.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 74.2 vs 103.4). If the model is right, Justin Herbert is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | DEN | BUF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.0 | 16.4 | Stafford +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #29 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 275.7 | 270.8 | Herbert +4.9 pts |
| Points per game | 16.2 | 15.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 2.7 | -2.2 | Herbert +4.9 |
| Overall rank | #67 | #75 | Herbert by 8 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | 74.2 | Herbert +29.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Matthew Stafford in Week 5?
Start Matthew Stafford this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (16.4 vs 15.0).
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 275.7 fantasy points with 2.7 value over replacement, vs 270.8 points and -2.2 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.