Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Patrick Mahomes this week, and it isn't close: 3.2 projected points separate them (17.7 vs 14.5).
Patrick Mahomes faces MIA, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces BUF, the 29th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Herbert: a clear but modest edge of 8.7 points of value over replacement (13.6 vs 5.0).
The draft market agrees: Justin Herbert goes first at ADP 103.4 vs 104.0 for Patrick Mahomes.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BUF | MIA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 14.5 | 17.7 | Mahomes +3.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #29 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 285.0 | 276.4 | Herbert +8.7 pts |
| Points per game | 16.8 | 16.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 13.6 | 5.0 | Herbert +8.7 |
| Overall rank | #63 | #66 | Herbert by 3 |
| Position rank | QB9 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | 104.0 | Mahomes +0.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 5 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes in Week 3?
Start Patrick Mahomes this week, and it isn't close: 3.2 projected points separate them (17.7 vs 14.5).
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 285.0 fantasy points with 13.6 value over replacement, vs 276.4 points and 5.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR).