Head to head · QB · 2026
Caleb Williams vs Justin Herbert
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Caleb Williams
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 3.3 points of value over replacement (15.9 vs 12.6) — close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way — drafters take Justin Herbert first (ADP 75.2 vs 109.0). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick: the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Caleb Williams | Justin Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Team | CHI | LAC |
| Overall rank | #59 | #61 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB8 |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 279.1 | 275.8 |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 15.9 | 12.6 |
| Market ADP | 109.0 | 75.2 |
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 279.1 fantasy points with 15.9 value over replacement, vs 275.8 points and 12.6 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.