Caleb Williams vs Justin Herbert
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB7
Caleb Williams
279.1
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB8
Justin Herbert
278.1
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 1.0 points of value over replacement (15.9 vs 14.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Caleb Williams goes first at ADP 90.6 vs 105.9 for Justin Herbert.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Justin HerbertLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 279.1 | 278.1 | Williams +1.0 pts |
| Points per game | 16.4 | 16.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 15.9 | 14.9 | Williams +1.0 |
| Overall rank | #59 | #60 | Williams by 1 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB8 | |
| Market ADP | 90.6 | 105.9 | Herbert +15.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 7 |
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 279.1 fantasy points with 15.9 value over replacement, vs 278.1 points and 14.9 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.