Jalen Hurts vs Caleb Williams
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 0.5 projected points (19.2 vs 18.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Caleb Williams faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jalen Hurts faces JAX, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jalen Hurts ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jalen Hurts, and it isn't close: 18.9 points of value over replacement separate them (43.5 vs 24.6).
The draft market agrees: Jalen Hurts goes first at ADP 75.9 vs 86.0 for Caleb Williams.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Questionable (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | JAX | GB | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 18.7 | 19.2 | Williams +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #18 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 316.5 | 297.6 | Hurts +18.9 pts |
| Points per game | 18.6 | 17.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 43.5 | 24.6 | Hurts +18.9 |
| Overall rank | #40 | #49 | Hurts by 9 |
| Position rank | QB5 | QB6 | |
| Market ADP | 75.9 | 86.0 | Williams +10.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Jalen Hurts or Caleb Williams in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 0.5 projected points (19.2 vs 18.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Hurts. He projects 316.5 fantasy points with 43.5 value over replacement, vs 297.6 points and 24.6 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).