Jalen Hurts vs Caleb Williams
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB6
Jalen Hurts
286.3
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB7
Caleb Williams
279.1
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Jalen Hurts: a clear but modest edge of 7.3 points of value over replacement (23.1 vs 15.9).
The draft market agrees: Jalen Hurts goes first at ADP 78.8 vs 90.6 for Caleb Williams.
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 286.3 | 279.1 | Hurts +7.3 pts |
| Points per game | 16.8 | 16.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 23.1 | 15.9 | Hurts +7.3 |
| Overall rank | #53 | #59 | Hurts by 6 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB7 | |
| Market ADP | 78.8 | 90.6 | Williams +11.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 10 |
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Hurts. He projects 286.3 fantasy points with 23.1 value over replacement, vs 279.1 points and 15.9 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).