Joe Burrow vs Jalen Hurts
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Joe Burrow this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (20.4 vs 18.7).
Joe Burrow faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jalen Hurts faces JAX, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow: a clear but modest edge of 10.6 points of value over replacement (54.1 vs 43.5).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 75.9 for Jalen Hurts.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Jalen HurtsPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIA | JAX | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 20.4 | 18.7 | Burrow +1.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #8 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 327.1 | 316.5 | Burrow +10.6 pts |
| Points per game | 19.2 | 18.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 54.1 | 43.5 | Burrow +10.6 |
| Overall rank | #34 | #40 | Burrow by 6 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB5 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 75.9 | Hurts +21.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts in Week 5?
Start Joe Burrow this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (20.4 vs 18.7).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 327.1 fantasy points with 54.1 value over replacement, vs 316.5 points and 43.5 for Jalen Hurts (QB, PPR).