Joe Burrow vs Jalen Hurts
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB4
Joe Burrow
294.3
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB6
Jalen Hurts
286.3
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Joe Burrow: a clear but modest edge of 8.0 points of value over replacement (31.1 vs 23.1).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 57.9 vs 78.8 for Jalen Hurts.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Jalen HurtsPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 294.3 | 286.3 | Burrow +8.0 pts |
| Points per game | 17.3 | 16.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 31.1 | 23.1 | Burrow +8.0 |
| Overall rank | #45 | #53 | Burrow by 8 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB6 | |
| Market ADP | 57.9 | 78.8 | Hurts +20.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 |
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 294.3 fantasy points with 31.1 value over replacement, vs 286.3 points and 23.1 for Jalen Hurts (QB, PPR).