Drake Maye vs Joe Burrow
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.1 projected points (20.4 vs 20.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Drake Maye faces LV, the 9th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Joe Burrow faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 2.5 points of value over replacement (56.6 vs 54.1), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Drake Maye goes first at ADP 51.8 vs 54.5 for Joe Burrow.
| Drake MayeNWE | Joe BurrowCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LV | MIA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 20.4 | 20.4 | Maye +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #9 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 329.6 | 327.1 | Maye +2.5 pts |
| Points per game | 19.4 | 19.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 56.6 | 54.1 | Maye +2.5 |
| Overall rank | #31 | #34 | Maye by 3 |
| Position rank | QB3 | QB4 | |
| Market ADP | 51.8 | 54.5 | Burrow +2.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Drake Maye or Joe Burrow in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.1 projected points (20.4 vs 20.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Drake Maye or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?
Drake Maye. He projects 329.6 fantasy points with 56.6 value over replacement, vs 327.1 points and 54.1 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.