Josh Allen vs Joe Burrow
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Josh Allen this week, and it isn't close: 3.8 projected points separate them (26.0 vs 22.2).
Josh Allen faces LAC, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Joe Burrow faces PIT, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Allen, and it isn't close: 69.2 points of value over replacement separate them (125.0 vs 55.7).
The draft market agrees: Josh Allen goes first at ADP 32.9 vs 54.5 for Joe Burrow.
| Josh AllenBUF | Joe BurrowCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LAC | PIT | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 26.0 | 22.2 | Allen +3.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 396.4 | 327.1 | Allen +69.2 pts |
| Points per game | 23.3 | 19.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 125.0 | 55.7 | Allen +69.2 |
| Overall rank | #7 | #32 | Allen by 25 |
| Position rank | QB1 | QB4 | |
| Market ADP | 32.9 | 54.5 | Burrow +21.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 6 |
Should I start Josh Allen or Joe Burrow in Week 3?
Start Josh Allen this week, and it isn't close: 3.8 projected points separate them (26.0 vs 22.2).
Should I draft Josh Allen or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Allen. He projects 396.4 fantasy points with 125.0 value over replacement, vs 327.1 points and 55.7 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR).