Joe Burrow vs Josh Allen
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
Start Joe Burrow this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (24.0 vs 22.8).
Joe Burrow faces PIT, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Josh Allen faces NYJ, the 1st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 36.2 points of value over replacement separate them (81.4 vs 45.2).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Josh Allen first (ADP 32.9 vs 54.5). If the model is right, Joe Burrow is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Josh AllenBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | PIT | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 24.0 | 22.8 | Burrow +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #3 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 368.8 | 332.6 | Burrow +36.2 pts |
| Points per game | 21.7 | 19.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 81.4 | 45.2 | Burrow +36.2 |
| Overall rank | #21 | #38 | Burrow by 17 |
| Position rank | QB1 | QB4 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 32.9 | Burrow +21.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 7 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Josh Allen in Week 10?
Start Joe Burrow this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (24.0 vs 22.8).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Josh Allen in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 368.8 fantasy points with 81.4 value over replacement, vs 332.6 points and 45.2 for Josh Allen (QB, PPR).