Jordan Love vs Joe Burrow
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Joe Burrow by 0.4 projected points (18.1 vs 17.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Joe Burrow faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jordan Love faces TB, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jordan Love ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jordan Love: a clear but modest edge of 9.6 points of value over replacement (18.0 vs 8.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Joe Burrow first (ADP 54.5 vs 139.2). If the model is right, Jordan Love is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jordan LoveGNB | Joe BurrowCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | TB | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 17.7 | 18.1 | Burrow +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #7 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 286.7 | 277.1 | Love +9.6 pts |
| Points per game | 16.9 | 16.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 18.0 | 8.3 | Love +9.6 |
| Overall rank | #52 | #62 | Love by 10 |
| Position rank | QB9 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 139.2 | 54.5 | Love +84.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Jordan Love or Joe Burrow in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Joe Burrow by 0.4 projected points (18.1 vs 17.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jordan Love or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?
Jordan Love. He projects 286.7 fantasy points with 18.0 value over replacement, vs 277.1 points and 8.3 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR).