Jordan Love vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jordan Love by 0.5 projected points (17.7 vs 17.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jordan Love faces TB, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces CIN, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Jordan Love by 4.2 points of value over replacement (18.0 vs 13.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Trevor Lawrence first (ADP 91.1 vs 139.2). If the model is right, Jordan Love is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jordan LoveGNB | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | TB | CIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 17.7 | 17.2 | Love +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #7 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 286.7 | 282.5 | Love +4.2 pts |
| Points per game | 16.9 | 16.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 18.0 | 13.8 | Love +4.2 |
| Overall rank | #52 | #56 | Love by 4 |
| Position rank | QB9 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 139.2 | 91.1 | Love +48.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Jordan Love or Trevor Lawrence in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jordan Love by 0.5 projected points (17.7 vs 17.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jordan Love or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Jordan Love. He projects 286.7 fantasy points with 18.0 value over replacement, vs 282.5 points and 13.8 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.