Josh Allen vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Josh Allen this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.9 projected points (19.2 vs 17.2).
Josh Allen faces NE, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces CIN, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Allen, and it isn't close: 26.8 points of value over replacement separate them (40.6 vs 13.8).
The draft market agrees: Josh Allen goes first at ADP 32.9 vs 91.1 for Trevor Lawrence.
| Josh AllenBUF | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NE | CIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 19.2 | 17.2 | Allen +1.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #6 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 309.4 | 282.5 | Allen +26.8 pts |
| Points per game | 18.2 | 16.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 40.6 | 13.8 | Allen +26.8 |
| Overall rank | #39 | #56 | Allen by 17 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 32.9 | 91.1 | Lawrence +58.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 7 |
Should I start Josh Allen or Trevor Lawrence in Week 4?
Start Josh Allen this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.9 projected points (19.2 vs 17.2).
Should I draft Josh Allen or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Allen. He projects 309.4 fantasy points with 40.6 value over replacement, vs 282.5 points and 13.8 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).