Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Patrick Mahomes this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (20.3 vs 19.2).
Patrick Mahomes faces LV, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Josh Allen faces NE, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Patrick Mahomes: a clear but modest edge of 11.2 points of value over replacement (51.8 vs 40.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Josh Allen first (ADP 32.9 vs 104.0). If the model is right, Patrick Mahomes is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Josh AllenBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LV | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 20.3 | 19.2 | Mahomes +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #5 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 320.6 | 309.4 | Mahomes +11.2 pts |
| Points per game | 18.9 | 18.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 51.8 | 40.6 | Mahomes +11.2 |
| Overall rank | #29 | #39 | Mahomes by 10 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB7 | |
| Market ADP | 104.0 | 32.9 | Mahomes +71.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 7 |
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in Week 4?
Start Patrick Mahomes this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (20.3 vs 19.2).
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 320.6 fantasy points with 51.8 value over replacement, vs 309.4 points and 40.6 for Josh Allen (QB, PPR).