Patrick Mahomes vs Tyler Shough
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Patrick Mahomes this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.2 projected points (20.3 vs 18.1).
Patrick Mahomes faces LV, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Tyler Shough faces ATL, the 20th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 2.9 points of value over replacement (51.8 vs 49.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Patrick Mahomes goes first at ADP 104.0 vs 137.8 for Tyler Shough.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Tyler ShoughNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LV | ATL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 20.3 | 18.1 | Mahomes +2.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #5 | #20 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 320.6 | 317.7 | Mahomes +2.9 pts |
| Points per game | 18.9 | 18.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 51.8 | 49.0 | Mahomes +2.9 |
| Overall rank | #29 | #34 | Mahomes by 5 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB5 | |
| Market ADP | 104.0 | 137.8 | Shough +33.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 8 |
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Tyler Shough in Week 4?
Start Patrick Mahomes this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.2 projected points (20.3 vs 18.1).
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Tyler Shough in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 320.6 fantasy points with 51.8 value over replacement, vs 317.7 points and 49.0 for Tyler Shough (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.