Patrick Mahomes vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Matthew Stafford this week: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Matthew Stafford gets BUF, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week, projecting 16.4 points.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 2.2 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -2.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 74.2 vs 104.0). If the model is right, Patrick Mahomes is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | Bye | BUF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 0.0 | 16.4 | Stafford +16.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | - | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 273.0 | 270.8 | Mahomes +2.2 pts |
| Points per game | 16.1 | 15.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -2.2 | Mahomes +2.2 |
| Overall rank | #71 | #76 | Mahomes by 5 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 104.0 | 74.2 | Mahomes +29.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 11 |
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford in Week 5?
Start Matthew Stafford this week: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 273.0 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 270.8 points and -2.2 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.