Patrick Mahomes vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
The model takes Patrick Mahomes: a clear but modest edge of 12.6 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -12.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 76.9 vs 102.7). If the model is right, Patrick Mahomes is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.2 | 250.6 | Mahomes +12.6 pts |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 14.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -12.6 | Mahomes +12.6 |
| Overall rank | #70 | #92 | Mahomes by 22 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 102.7 | 76.9 | Mahomes +25.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 263.2 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 250.6 points and -12.6 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR).