Head to head · QB · 2026
Patrick Mahomes vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Patrick Mahomes
The model takes Patrick Mahomes: a clear but modest edge of 12.6 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -12.6).
The draft market agrees: Patrick Mahomes goes first at ADP 76.0 vs 101.8 for Matthew Stafford.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag — Questionable (Knee - ACL) — which is already reflected in his projection.
| Patrick Mahomes | Matthew Stafford | |
|---|---|---|
| Team | KAN | LAR |
| Overall rank | #70 | #91 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB13 |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.2 | 250.6 |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| Market ADP | 76.0 | 101.8 |
| Injury flag | Questionable | — |
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 263.2 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 250.6 points and -12.6 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR).