Trevor Lawrence vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 4.9 points of value over replacement (4.9 vs 0.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Trevor Lawrence goes first at ADP 91.2 vs 102.7 for Patrick Mahomes.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 268.1 | 263.2 | Lawrence +4.9 pts |
| Points per game | 15.8 | 15.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 4.9 | 0.0 | Lawrence +4.9 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #70 | Lawrence by 2 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB12 | |
| Market ADP | 91.2 | 102.7 | Mahomes +11.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 5 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 268.1 fantasy points with 4.9 value over replacement, vs 263.2 points and 0.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.