Trevor Lawrence vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 4.9 points of value over replacement (4.9 vs 0.0) — close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way — drafters take Patrick Mahomes first (ADP 76.0 vs 81.9). If the model is right, Trevor Lawrence is the value pick: the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag — Questionable (Knee - ACL) — which is already reflected in his projection.
| Trevor Lawrence | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|
| Team | JAX | KAN |
| Overall rank | #68 | #70 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB12 |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 268.1 | 263.2 |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 4.9 | 0.0 |
| Market ADP | 81.9 | 76.0 |
| Injury flag | — | Questionable |
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 268.1 fantasy points with 4.9 value over replacement, vs 263.2 points and 0.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.