Trevor Lawrence vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Trevor Lawrence gets PHI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week, projecting 16.9 points.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 2.2 points of value over replacement (2.2 vs 0.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Trevor Lawrence goes first at ADP 91.1 vs 104.0 for Patrick Mahomes.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | Bye | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.9 | 0.0 | Lawrence +16.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #10 | - | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 275.2 | 273.0 | Lawrence +2.2 pts |
| Points per game | 16.2 | 16.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 2.2 | 0.0 | Lawrence +2.2 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #71 | Lawrence by 3 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB12 | |
| Market ADP | 91.1 | 104.0 | Mahomes +12.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 5 |
Should I start Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes in Week 5?
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 275.2 fantasy points with 2.2 value over replacement, vs 273.0 points and 0.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.