Dak Prescott vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (16.9 vs 15.9).
Trevor Lawrence faces PHI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces TB, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Dak Prescott ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dak Prescott, and it isn't close: 15.9 points of value over replacement separate them (18.1 vs 2.2).
The draft market agrees: Dak Prescott goes first at ADP 65.3 vs 91.1 for Trevor Lawrence.
| Dak PrescottDAL | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TB | PHI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.9 | 16.9 | Lawrence +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #28 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 291.1 | 275.2 | Prescott +15.9 pts |
| Points per game | 17.1 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 18.1 | 2.2 | Prescott +15.9 |
| Overall rank | #55 | #68 | Prescott by 13 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 65.3 | 91.1 | Lawrence +25.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 7 |
Should I start Dak Prescott or Trevor Lawrence in Week 5?
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (16.9 vs 15.9).
Should I draft Dak Prescott or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Dak Prescott. He projects 291.1 fantasy points with 18.1 value over replacement, vs 275.2 points and 2.2 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).