Jayden Daniels vs Dak Prescott
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.7 projected points (17.6 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jayden Daniels faces SEA, the 26th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces BAL, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jayden Daniels, and it isn't close: 26.2 points of value over replacement separate them (45.9 vs 19.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 65.3 vs 75.2). If the model is right, Jayden Daniels is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jayden Daniels carries an injury flag of Out (Elbow), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jayden DanielsWAS | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | SEA | BAL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 17.6 | 16.9 | Daniels +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #26 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 317.3 | 291.1 | Daniels +26.2 pts |
| Points per game | 18.7 | 17.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 45.9 | 19.7 | Daniels +26.2 |
| Overall rank | #37 | #53 | Daniels by 16 |
| Position rank | QB5 | QB8 | |
| Market ADP | 75.2 | 65.3 | Daniels +9.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 14 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Jayden Daniels or Dak Prescott in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.7 projected points (17.6 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jayden Daniels or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Jayden Daniels. He projects 317.3 fantasy points with 45.9 value over replacement, vs 291.1 points and 19.7 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).