Jalen Hurts vs Dak Prescott
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Jalen Hurts this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (18.6 vs 16.9).
Jalen Hurts faces CHI, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces BAL, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jalen Hurts, and it isn't close: 25.4 points of value over replacement separate them (45.1 vs 19.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 65.3 vs 75.9). If the model is right, Jalen Hurts is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CHI | BAL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 18.6 | 16.9 | Hurts +1.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 316.5 | 291.1 | Hurts +25.4 pts |
| Points per game | 18.6 | 17.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 45.1 | 19.7 | Hurts +25.4 |
| Overall rank | #38 | #53 | Hurts by 15 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB8 | |
| Market ADP | 75.9 | 65.3 | Hurts +10.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 14 |
Should I start Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott in Week 3?
Start Jalen Hurts this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (18.6 vs 16.9).
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Hurts. He projects 316.5 fantasy points with 45.1 value over replacement, vs 291.1 points and 19.7 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).