Joe Burrow vs Jayden Daniels
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Joe Burrow this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.8 projected points (20.4 vs 17.5).
Joe Burrow faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jayden Daniels faces NYG, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 31.5 points of value over replacement separate them (54.1 vs 22.7).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 75.2 for Jayden Daniels.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Jayden DanielsWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIA | NYG | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 20.4 | 17.5 | Burrow +2.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #8 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 327.1 | 295.7 | Burrow +31.5 pts |
| Points per game | 19.2 | 17.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 54.1 | 22.7 | Burrow +31.5 |
| Overall rank | #34 | #50 | Burrow by 16 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB7 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 75.2 | Daniels +20.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 7 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels in Week 5?
Start Joe Burrow this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.8 projected points (20.4 vs 17.5).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 327.1 fantasy points with 54.1 value over replacement, vs 295.7 points and 22.7 for Jayden Daniels (QB, PPR).