Head to head · QB · 2026

Lamar Jackson vs Joe Burrow

Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.

The model's pick
Lamar Jackson

The model takes Lamar Jackson, and it isn't close — 38.7 points of value over replacement separate them (69.9 vs 31.1).

The room sees it the other way — drafters take Joe Burrow first (ADP 47.4 vs 53.6). If the model is right, Lamar Jackson is the value pick: the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.

Lamar Jackson Joe Burrow
Team BAL CIN
Overall rank #21 #45
Position rank QB2 QB4
Projected 2026 points (PPR) 333.1 294.3
Value over replacement (VBD) 69.9 31.1
Market ADP 53.6 47.4

Should I draft Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?

Lamar Jackson. He projects 333.1 fantasy points with 69.9 value over replacement, vs 294.3 points and 31.1 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR).