Lamar Jackson vs Joe Burrow
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (22.1 vs 20.4).
Lamar Jackson faces ATL, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Joe Burrow faces MIA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Lamar Jackson, and it isn't close: 56.1 points of value over replacement separate them (110.2 vs 54.1).
The draft market has them practically even (ADP 54.6 vs 54.5), so whichever falls to you is the pick.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Out (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Lamar JacksonBAL | Joe BurrowCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | ATL | MIA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 22.1 | 20.4 | Jackson +1.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 383.2 | 327.1 | Jackson +56.1 pts |
| Points per game | 22.5 | 19.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 110.2 | 54.1 | Jackson +56.1 |
| Overall rank | #11 | #34 | Jackson by 23 |
| Position rank | QB2 | QB4 | |
| Market ADP | 54.6 | 54.5 | Even |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow in Week 5?
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (22.1 vs 20.4).
Should I draft Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?
Lamar Jackson. He projects 383.2 fantasy points with 110.2 value over replacement, vs 327.1 points and 54.1 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR).