Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Josh Allen this week, and it isn't close: 3.6 projected points separate them (25.7 vs 22.1).
Josh Allen faces LA, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Lamar Jackson faces ATL, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Allen: a clear but modest edge of 13.2 points of value over replacement (123.4 vs 110.2).
The draft market agrees: Josh Allen goes first at ADP 32.9 vs 54.6 for Lamar Jackson.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Out (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Josh AllenBUF | Lamar JacksonBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LA | ATL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 25.7 | 22.1 | Allen +3.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #4 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 396.4 | 383.2 | Allen +13.2 pts |
| Points per game | 23.3 | 22.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 123.4 | 110.2 | Allen +13.2 |
| Overall rank | #8 | #11 | Allen by 3 |
| Position rank | QB1 | QB2 | |
| Market ADP | 32.9 | 54.6 | Jackson +21.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in Week 5?
Start Josh Allen this week, and it isn't close: 3.6 projected points separate them (25.7 vs 22.1).
Should I draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Allen. He projects 396.4 fantasy points with 123.4 value over replacement, vs 383.2 points and 110.2 for Lamar Jackson (QB, PPR).