Lamar Jackson vs Drake Maye
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (22.1 vs 20.4).
Lamar Jackson faces ATL, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Drake Maye faces LV, the 9th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Lamar Jackson, and it isn't close: 53.6 points of value over replacement separate them (110.2 vs 56.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Drake Maye first (ADP 51.8 vs 54.6). If the model is right, Lamar Jackson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Out (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Lamar JacksonBAL | Drake MayeNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | ATL | LV | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 22.1 | 20.4 | Jackson +1.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 383.2 | 329.6 | Jackson +53.6 pts |
| Points per game | 22.5 | 19.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 110.2 | 56.6 | Jackson +53.6 |
| Overall rank | #11 | #31 | Jackson by 20 |
| Position rank | QB2 | QB3 | |
| Market ADP | 54.6 | 51.8 | Jackson +2.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Lamar Jackson or Drake Maye in Week 5?
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (22.1 vs 20.4).
Should I draft Lamar Jackson or Drake Maye in 2026 fantasy football?
Lamar Jackson. He projects 383.2 fantasy points with 110.2 value over replacement, vs 329.6 points and 56.6 for Drake Maye (QB, PPR).