Head to head · QB · 2026
Joe Burrow vs Caleb Williams
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Joe Burrow
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 15.2 points of value over replacement separate them (31.1 vs 15.9).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 47.4 vs 108.6 for Caleb Williams.
| Joe Burrow | Caleb Williams | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | CIN | CHI | |
| Overall rank | #45 | #59 | Burrow by 14 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 294.3 | 279.1 | Burrow +15.2 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 31.1 | 15.9 | Burrow +15.2 |
| Market ADP | 47.4 | 108.6 | Williams +61.2 cheaper |
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 294.3 fantasy points with 31.1 value over replacement, vs 279.1 points and 15.9 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).