Joe Burrow vs Caleb Williams
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 4.3 projected points separate them (22.2 vs 17.8).
Joe Burrow faces PIT, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces PHI, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 29.5 points of value over replacement separate them (55.7 vs 26.2).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 86.0 for Caleb Williams.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | PIT | PHI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 22.2 | 17.8 | Burrow +4.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #2 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 327.1 | 297.6 | Burrow +29.5 pts |
| Points per game | 19.2 | 17.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 55.7 | 26.2 | Burrow +29.5 |
| Overall rank | #32 | #49 | Burrow by 17 |
| Position rank | QB4 | QB7 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 86.0 | Williams +31.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Doubtful |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams in Week 3?
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 4.3 projected points separate them (22.2 vs 17.8).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 327.1 fantasy points with 55.7 value over replacement, vs 297.6 points and 26.2 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).