Head to head · QB · 2026

Caleb Williams vs Dak Prescott

Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.

The model's pick
Caleb Williams

The model takes Caleb Williams: a clear but modest edge of 6.4 points of value over replacement (15.9 vs 9.5).

The room sees it the other way — drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 59.7 vs 109.0). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick: the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.

Health note: Dak Prescott carries an injury flag — Questionable (Knee) — which is already reflected in his projection.

Caleb Williams Dak Prescott
Team CHI DAL
Overall rank #59 #64
Position rank QB7 QB9
Projected 2026 points (PPR) 279.1 272.7
Value over replacement (VBD) 15.9 9.5
Market ADP 109.0 59.7
Injury flag Questionable

Should I draft Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?

Caleb Williams. He projects 279.1 fantasy points with 15.9 value over replacement, vs 272.7 points and 9.5 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).