Caleb Williams vs Dak Prescott
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Caleb Williams this week, and it isn't close: 3.3 projected points separate them (19.2 vs 15.9).
Caleb Williams faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces TB, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams: a clear but modest edge of 6.5 points of value over replacement (24.6 vs 18.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 65.3 vs 86.0). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Questionable (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | GB | TB | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 19.2 | 15.9 | Williams +3.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #5 | #28 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 297.6 | 291.1 | Williams +6.5 pts |
| Points per game | 17.5 | 17.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 24.6 | 18.1 | Williams +6.5 |
| Overall rank | #49 | #55 | Williams by 6 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB8 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | 65.3 | Williams +20.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 14 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott in Week 5?
Start Caleb Williams this week, and it isn't close: 3.3 projected points separate them (19.2 vs 15.9).
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 297.6 fantasy points with 24.6 value over replacement, vs 291.1 points and 18.1 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).