Caleb Williams vs Brock Purdy
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 0.9 projected points (17.9 vs 17.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Caleb Williams faces PHI, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Brock Purdy faces ARI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams, and it isn't close: 23.5 points of value over replacement separate them (26.6 vs 3.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Brock Purdy first (ADP 84.0 vs 86.0). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Brock PurdySFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | PHI | ARI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 17.9 | 17.0 | Williams +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #12 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 298.6 | 275.1 | Williams +23.5 pts |
| Points per game | 17.6 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 26.6 | 3.1 | Williams +23.5 |
| Overall rank | #47 | #67 | Williams by 20 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | 84.0 | Williams +2.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Brock Purdy in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 0.9 projected points (17.9 vs 17.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Brock Purdy in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 298.6 fantasy points with 26.6 value over replacement, vs 275.1 points and 3.1 for Brock Purdy (QB, PPR).