Caleb Williams vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 1.0 projected points (17.8 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Caleb Williams faces PHI, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces NE, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams, and it isn't close: 18.6 points of value over replacement separate them (26.2 vs 7.6).
The draft market agrees: Caleb Williams goes first at ADP 86.0 vs 91.1 for Trevor Lawrence.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | PHI | NE | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 17.8 | 16.9 | Williams +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #12 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 297.6 | 279.0 | Williams +18.6 pts |
| Points per game | 17.5 | 16.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 26.2 | 7.6 | Williams +18.6 |
| Overall rank | #49 | #65 | Williams by 16 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | 91.1 | Lawrence +5.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | Doubtful | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 1.0 projected points (17.8 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 297.6 fantasy points with 26.2 value over replacement, vs 279.0 points and 7.6 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).