Head to head · QB · 2026
Caleb Williams vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Caleb Williams
The model takes Caleb Williams: a clear but modest edge of 11.0 points of value over replacement (15.9 vs 4.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Trevor Lawrence first (ADP 83.9 vs 108.6). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Caleb Williams | Trevor Lawrence | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | CHI | JAX | |
| Overall rank | #59 | #68 | Williams by 9 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 279.1 | 268.1 | Williams +11.0 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 15.9 | 4.9 | Williams +11.0 |
| Market ADP | 108.6 | 83.9 | Williams +24.7 cheaper |
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 279.1 fantasy points with 15.9 value over replacement, vs 268.1 points and 4.9 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).