Drake Maye vs Caleb Williams
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Drake Maye this week, and it isn't close: 3.3 projected points separate them (20.2 vs 16.9).
Drake Maye faces BUF, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Drake Maye, and it isn't close: 46.6 points of value over replacement separate them (73.4 vs 26.8).
The draft market agrees: Drake Maye goes first at ADP 51.8 vs 86.0 for Caleb Williams.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Drake MayeNWE | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BUF | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 20.2 | 16.9 | Maye +3.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 344.2 | 297.6 | Maye +46.6 pts |
| Points per game | 20.2 | 17.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 73.4 | 26.8 | Maye +46.6 |
| Overall rank | #21 | #48 | Maye by 27 |
| Position rank | QB3 | QB6 | |
| Market ADP | 51.8 | 86.0 | Williams +34.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Doubtful |
Should I start Drake Maye or Caleb Williams in Week 4?
Start Drake Maye this week, and it isn't close: 3.3 projected points separate them (20.2 vs 16.9).
Should I draft Drake Maye or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Drake Maye. He projects 344.2 fantasy points with 73.4 value over replacement, vs 297.6 points and 26.8 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).