Dak Prescott vs Justin Herbert
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dak Prescott by 0.9 projected points (15.9 vs 15.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dak Prescott faces TB, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces DEN, the 29th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dak Prescott, and it isn't close: 15.3 points of value over replacement separate them (18.1 vs 2.7).
The draft market agrees: Dak Prescott goes first at ADP 65.3 vs 103.4 for Justin Herbert.
| Dak PrescottDAL | Justin HerbertLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TB | DEN | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.9 | 15.0 | Prescott +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #28 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 291.1 | 275.7 | Prescott +15.3 pts |
| Points per game | 17.1 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 18.1 | 2.7 | Prescott +15.3 |
| Overall rank | #55 | #67 | Prescott by 12 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 65.3 | 103.4 | Herbert +38.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 7 |
Should I start Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dak Prescott by 0.9 projected points (15.9 vs 15.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Dak Prescott. He projects 291.1 fantasy points with 18.1 value over replacement, vs 275.7 points and 2.7 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR).