Head to head · QB · 2026
Justin Herbert vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Justin Herbert
The model takes Justin Herbert: a clear but modest edge of 10.0 points of value over replacement (14.9 vs 4.9).
The draft market agrees: Justin Herbert goes first at ADP 75.7 vs 83.4 for Trevor Lawrence.
| Justin Herbert | Trevor Lawrence | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | LAC | JAX | |
| Overall rank | #58 | #68 | Herbert by 10 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 278.1 | 268.1 | Herbert +10.0 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 14.9 | 4.9 | Herbert +10.0 |
| Market ADP | 75.7 | 83.4 | Lawrence +7.7 cheaper |
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 278.1 fantasy points with 14.9 value over replacement, vs 268.1 points and 4.9 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).