Justin Herbert vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (16.4 vs 14.7).
Trevor Lawrence faces HOU, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces KC, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 6, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 0.5 points of value over replacement (2.7 vs 2.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Trevor Lawrence first (ADP 91.1 vs 103.4). If the model is right, Justin Herbert is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | KC | HOU | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 14.7 | 16.4 | Lawrence +1.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #28 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 275.7 | 275.2 | Herbert +0.5 pts |
| Points per game | 16.2 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 2.7 | 2.2 | Herbert +0.5 |
| Overall rank | #67 | #69 | Herbert by 2 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | 91.1 | Herbert +12.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 7 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence in Week 6?
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (16.4 vs 14.7).
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 275.7 fantasy points with 2.7 value over replacement, vs 275.2 points and 2.2 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.