Justin Herbert vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 3.7 points of value over replacement (21.2 vs 17.5), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Trevor Lawrence first (ADP 91.2 vs 105.0). If the model is right, Justin Herbert is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 271.7 | 268.1 | Herbert +3.7 pts |
| Points per game | 16.0 | 15.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 21.2 | 17.5 | Herbert +3.7 |
| Overall rank | #54 | #59 | Herbert by 5 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 105.0 | 91.2 | Herbert +13.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 7 |
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 271.7 fantasy points with 21.2 value over replacement, vs 268.1 points and 17.5 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.