Justin Herbert vs Brock Purdy
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB10
Justin Herbert
271.7
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB13
Brock Purdy
250.5
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Justin Herbert, and it isn't close: 21.2 points of value over replacement separate them (19.9 vs -1.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Brock Purdy first (ADP 87.2 vs 105.2). If the model is right, Justin Herbert is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Brock PurdySFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 271.7 | 250.5 | Herbert +21.2 pts |
| Points per game | 16.0 | 14.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 19.9 | -1.3 | Herbert +21.2 |
| Overall rank | #54 | #73 | Herbert by 19 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 105.2 | 87.2 | Herbert +18.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 8 |
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Brock Purdy in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 271.7 fantasy points with 19.9 value over replacement, vs 250.5 points and -1.3 for Brock Purdy (QB, PPR).