Head to head · QB · 2026
Patrick Mahomes vs Brock Purdy
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Patrick Mahomes
The model takes Patrick Mahomes: a clear but modest edge of 12.7 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -12.7).
The draft market agrees: Patrick Mahomes goes first at ADP 76.0 vs 100.4 for Brock Purdy.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag — Questionable (Knee - ACL) — which is already reflected in his projection.
| Patrick Mahomes | Brock Purdy | |
|---|---|---|
| Team | KAN | SFO |
| Overall rank | #70 | #92 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB14 |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.2 | 250.5 |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -12.7 |
| Market ADP | 76.0 | 100.4 |
| Injury flag | Questionable | — |
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 263.2 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 250.5 points and -12.7 for Brock Purdy (QB, PPR).