Head to head · QB · 2026

Jaxson Dart vs Patrick Mahomes

Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean — refreshed every morning.

The model's pick
Jaxson Dart

The model takes Jaxson Dart: a clear but modest edge of 8.3 points of value over replacement (8.3 vs 0.0).

The room sees it the other way — drafters take Patrick Mahomes first (ADP 76.0 vs 115.4). If the model is right, Jaxson Dart is the value pick: the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.

Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag — Questionable (Knee - ACL) — which is already reflected in his projection.

Jaxson Dart Patrick Mahomes
Team NYG KAN
Overall rank #65 #70
Position rank QB10 QB12
Projected 2026 points (PPR) 271.5 263.2
Value over replacement (VBD) 8.3 0.0
Market ADP 115.4 76.0
Injury flag Questionable

Should I draft Jaxson Dart or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?

Jaxson Dart. He projects 271.5 fantasy points with 8.3 value over replacement, vs 263.2 points and 0.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR).