Jaxson Dart vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Jaxson Dart by 3.9 points of value over replacement (3.9 vs 0.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Patrick Mahomes first (ADP 102.7 vs 116.4). If the model is right, Jaxson Dart is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jaxson DartNYG | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 267.1 | 263.2 | Dart +3.9 pts |
| Points per game | 15.7 | 15.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 3.9 | 0.0 | Dart +3.9 |
| Overall rank | #69 | #70 | Dart by 1 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB12 | |
| Market ADP | 116.4 | 102.7 | Dart +13.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 5 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I draft Jaxson Dart or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Jaxson Dart. He projects 267.1 fantasy points with 3.9 value over replacement, vs 263.2 points and 0.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.