Patrick Mahomes vs Bo Nix
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
QB12
Patrick Mahomes
273.0
projected 2026 points (PPR)
Season-long pick
VS
QB15
Bo Nix
253.8
projected 2026 points (PPR)
Who to start in Week 5
Start Bo Nix this week: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Bo Nix gets LAC, the 26th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week, projecting 14.1 points.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Patrick Mahomes, and it isn't close: 19.2 points of value over replacement separate them (0.0 vs -19.2).
The draft market agrees: Patrick Mahomes goes first at ADP 104.0 vs 109.6 for Bo Nix.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Bo NixDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | Bye | LAC | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 0.0 | 14.1 | Nix +14.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | - | #26 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 273.0 | 253.8 | Mahomes +19.2 pts |
| Points per game | 16.1 | 14.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -19.2 | Mahomes +19.2 |
| Overall rank | #70 | #95 | Mahomes by 25 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB15 | |
| Market ADP | 104.0 | 109.6 | Nix +5.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 10 |
Should I start Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix in Week 5?
Start Bo Nix this week: Patrick Mahomes is on bye in Week 5.
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 273.0 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 253.8 points and -19.2 for Bo Nix (QB, PPR).