Head to head · QB · 2026
Matthew Stafford vs Bo Nix
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Matthew Stafford
The model takes Matthew Stafford: a clear but modest edge of 9.8 points of value over replacement (-12.6 vs -22.4).
The draft market agrees: Matthew Stafford goes first at ADP 103.7 vs 115.5 for Bo Nix.
Health note: Bo Nix carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Matthew Stafford | Bo Nix | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | LAR | DEN | |
| Overall rank | #89 | #101 | Stafford by 12 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 250.6 | 240.8 | Stafford +9.8 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -12.6 | -22.4 | Stafford +9.8 |
| Market ADP | 103.7 | 115.5 | Nix +11.8 cheaper |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Bo Nix in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 250.6 fantasy points with -12.6 value over replacement, vs 240.8 points and -22.4 for Bo Nix (QB, PPR).