Jaxson Dart vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jaxson Dart by 0.4 projected points (16.1 vs 15.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jaxson Dart faces TEN, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Matthew Stafford faces DEN, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Jaxson Dart by 0.6 points of value over replacement (0.0 vs -0.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 74.2 vs 118.2). If the model is right, Jaxson Dart is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jaxson Dart carries an injury flag of IR (Knee - Meniscus), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jaxson DartNYG | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | TEN | DEN | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 16.1 | 15.7 | Dart +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #15 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 271.4 | 270.8 | Dart +0.6 pts |
| Points per game | 16.0 | 15.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 0.0 | -0.6 | Dart +0.6 |
| Overall rank | #70 | #73 | Dart by 3 |
| Position rank | QB12 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 118.2 | 74.2 | Dart +44.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | IR | None |
Should I start Jaxson Dart or Matthew Stafford in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jaxson Dart by 0.4 projected points (16.1 vs 15.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jaxson Dart or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Jaxson Dart. He projects 271.4 fantasy points with 0.0 value over replacement, vs 270.8 points and -0.6 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.