Trevor Lawrence vs Jaxson Dart
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 0.8 projected points (16.9 vs 16.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Trevor Lawrence faces PHI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jaxson Dart faces WAS, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Trevor Lawrence, and it isn't close: 17.7 points of value over replacement separate them (2.2 vs -15.5).
The draft market agrees: Trevor Lawrence goes first at ADP 91.1 vs 118.2 for Jaxson Dart.
Health note: Jaxson Dart carries an injury flag of IR (Knee - Meniscus), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Jaxson DartNYG | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | WAS | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.9 | 16.2 | Lawrence +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #10 | #7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 275.2 | 257.5 | Lawrence +17.7 pts |
| Points per game | 16.2 | 15.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 2.2 | -15.5 | Lawrence +17.7 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #93 | Lawrence by 25 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB14 | |
| Market ADP | 91.1 | 118.2 | Dart +27.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start Trevor Lawrence or Jaxson Dart in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Trevor Lawrence by 0.8 projected points (16.9 vs 16.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Jaxson Dart in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 275.2 fantasy points with 2.2 value over replacement, vs 257.5 points and -15.5 for Jaxson Dart (QB, PPR).