Dak Prescott vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 0.8 projected points (17.7 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Patrick Mahomes faces MIA, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces BAL, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Dak Prescott ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dak Prescott: a clear but modest edge of 14.7 points of value over replacement (19.7 vs 5.0).
The draft market agrees: Dak Prescott goes first at ADP 65.3 vs 104.0 for Patrick Mahomes.
| Dak PrescottDAL | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BAL | MIA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 16.9 | 17.7 | Mahomes +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #17 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 291.1 | 276.4 | Prescott +14.7 pts |
| Points per game | 17.1 | 16.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 19.7 | 5.0 | Prescott +14.7 |
| Overall rank | #53 | #66 | Prescott by 13 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 65.3 | 104.0 | Mahomes +38.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 5 |
Should I start Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 0.8 projected points (17.7 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Dak Prescott. He projects 291.1 fantasy points with 19.7 value over replacement, vs 276.4 points and 5.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR).