Dak Prescott vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model takes Dak Prescott: a clear but modest edge of 11.6 points of value over replacement (11.6 vs 0.0).
The draft market agrees: Dak Prescott goes first at ADP 59.0 vs 75.2 for Patrick Mahomes.
Health note: Dak Prescott carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Dak Prescott | Patrick Mahomes | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | DAL | KAN | |
| Overall rank | #64 | #71 | Prescott by 7 |
| Position rank | QB9 | QB12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 274.8 | 263.2 | Prescott +11.6 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 11.6 | 0.0 | Prescott +11.6 |
| Market ADP | 59.0 | 75.2 | Mahomes +16.2 cheaper |
| Injury flag | Questionable | Questionable |
Should I draft Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Dak Prescott. He projects 274.8 fantasy points with 11.6 value over replacement, vs 263.2 points and 0.0 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR).