Patrick Mahomes vs Jared Goff
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
The model takes Patrick Mahomes: a clear but modest edge of 13.0 points of value over replacement (-3.1 vs -16.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jared Goff first (ADP 100.6 vs 102.2). If the model is right, Patrick Mahomes is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Jared GoffDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 248.7 | 235.7 | Mahomes +13.0 pts |
| Points per game | 14.6 | 13.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -3.1 | -16.1 | Mahomes +13.0 |
| Overall rank | #76 | #93 | Mahomes by 17 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 102.2 | 100.6 | Mahomes +1.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 248.7 fantasy points with -3.1 value over replacement, vs 235.7 points and -16.1 for Jared Goff (QB, PPR).