Jaxson Dart vs Jared Goff
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 0.6 projected points (16.7 vs 16.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jared Goff faces ARI, the 1st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jaxson Dart faces WAS, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jaxson Dart ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jaxson Dart: a clear but modest edge of 14.9 points of value over replacement (-15.5 vs -30.4).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jared Goff first (ADP 101.8 vs 118.2). If the model is right, Jaxson Dart is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jaxson Dart carries an injury flag of IR (Knee - Meniscus), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jaxson DartNYG | Jared GoffDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | WAS | ARI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.2 | 16.7 | Goff +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #7 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 257.5 | 242.6 | Dart +14.9 pts |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 14.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -15.5 | -30.4 | Dart +14.9 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #104 | Dart by 12 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 118.2 | 101.8 | Dart +16.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | IR | None |
Should I start Jaxson Dart or Jared Goff in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 0.6 projected points (16.7 vs 16.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jaxson Dart or Jared Goff in 2026 fantasy football?
Jaxson Dart. He projects 257.5 fantasy points with -15.5 value over replacement, vs 242.6 points and -30.4 for Jared Goff (QB, PPR).