Patrick Mahomes vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB15
Patrick Mahomes
248.7
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB18
Baker Mayfield
222.2
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Patrick Mahomes, and it isn't close: 26.5 points of value over replacement separate them (-3.1 vs -29.6).
The draft market agrees: Patrick Mahomes goes first at ADP 102.2 vs 129.9 for Baker Mayfield.
Health note: Patrick Mahomes carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Patrick MahomesKAN | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 248.7 | 222.2 | Mahomes +26.5 pts |
| Points per game | 14.6 | 13.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -3.1 | -29.6 | Mahomes +26.5 |
| Overall rank | #76 | #110 | Mahomes by 34 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 102.2 | 129.9 | Mayfield +27.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Patrick Mahomes. He projects 248.7 fantasy points with -3.1 value over replacement, vs 222.2 points and -29.6 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).